FINAL: CWS 6 — CLE 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CWS 4.7 - CLE 3.7 (CWS at 58.8% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
CWS
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CLE
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSCLE
+1.5
Run Line (CWS)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CLE L5CWS
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.9% (3,212 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
246
CWS
357
Projected
CWS 4.7 — CLE 3.7
Actual
CWS 6 — CLE 3
Pick Results
CLE @ CWS NRFInrfiWIN+0.39u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Gavin Williams R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
ST28%88 mph43% whiff
FF25%97 mph26% whiff
CU21%83 mph26% whiff
Anthony Kay L
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF24%96 mph17% whiff
ST22%83 mph35% whiff
SI18%95 mph16% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
77°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.010 Total: 1.003
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.60ERA
3.88FIP
9.93K/9
3.85BB/9
1.27WHIP
CWS
3.88ERA
4.18FIP
9.05K/9
4.55BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-25.3% EV
-152
F5_ML HOME
+22.1% EV
+122
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-20.4% EV
+118
ML AWAY
-11.9% EV
-132
ML HOME
+10.9% EV
+122
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-9.0% EV
-120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.1 runs
34.5% win
CWS F5
2.7 runs
50.1% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
55.4%
YRFI
44.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.6
Over 0.5 HR
92%
Over 1.5 HR
73%
No HR
8%
Munetaka Murakami CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.344 | Barrel: 17.0% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Miguel Vargas CWS30.0%
ISO: 0.222 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Gavin Williams | Park: 1.01x
Chase DeLauter CLE27.4%
ISO: 0.140 | Barrel: 8.0% | vs Anthony Kay | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Gavin Williams
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Anthony Kay
0.0 K projected
CWS | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE2 injured
Slade Cecconi SP15-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
CWSHealthy
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CWS 58.8%
+7.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+7.3 pts
Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.