FINAL: MIN 2 — CLE 9. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIN 4.0 - CLE 4.7 (CLE at 57.2% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.7 total runs.
MIN
4.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
CLE
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINCLE
-1.5
Run Line (MIN)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
CLEMIN L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.4% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
357
MIN
246
Projected
MIN 4.0 — CLE 4.7
Actual
MIN 2 — CLE 9
Pick Results
CLE MLmlWIN+0.56u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Tanner Bibee R
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC24%86 mph28% whiff
FF24%94 mph12% whiff
SI21%93 mph14% whiff
Joe Ryan R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%93 mph21% whiff
ST14%80 mph36% whiff
FS12%88 mph22% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
65°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.056 Total: 1.031
6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.33ERA
3.67FIP
10.11K/9
3.67BB/9
1.22WHIP
MIN
4.43ERA
4.07FIP
9.25K/9
4.10BB/9
1.39WHIP
Betting Edges
ML AWAY
+9.9% EV
+112
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-9.7% EV
+172
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-7.9% EV
-102
F5 UNDER 4.5
-7.0% EV
-128
F5_ML AWAY
+6.7% EV
+110
NRFI NRFI
-5.8% EV
-132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.6 runs
45.8% win
MIN F5
2.3 runs
38.7% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
53.3%
YRFI
46.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.05
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
62%
No HR
12%
Chase DeLauter CLE30.0%
ISO: 0.183 | Barrel: 8.3% | vs Joe Ryan | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Kody Clemens MIN25.6%
ISO: 0.254 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x
Ryan Jeffers MIN24.4%
ISO: 0.258 | Barrel: 11.3% | vs Tanner Bibee | Park: 0.99x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Tanner Bibee
0.0 K projected
CLE | K/9: 0.0
Joe Ryan
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
CLE3 injured
Colin Holderman RP15-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
Rhys Hoskins 1B10-DAY-IL
MIN8 injured
Kaelen Culpepper SSDAY-TO-DAY
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Tanner Bibee's strong recent form (7 K in 6.67 IP vs this same MIN lineup on Sunday) combined with Cleveland's momentum pulling within 0.5 games of the AL Central lead supports the model's 9.9% edge on CLE as a road underdog, which the market's -120 MIN price likely hasn't fully absorbed yet.
Key Factors
- Tanner Bibee's demonstrated recent form: 7 K in 6.67 IP in Sunday's win over this same MIN opponent - a fresh data point not fully reflected in season ERA
- CLE has pulled within 0.5 games of AL Central lead per recent news - real divisional momentum context
- Model 9.9% ML edge (51.9% CLE) vs market 47.2% implied is a moderate, not extreme, edge - avoids the overconfidence trap
- Joe Ryan (3.97 ERA) is solid but not dominant enough to fully offset Bibee's momentum and recent head-to-head success
Risk Factors
- Season-long ERA still favors MIN's Joe Ryan (3.97) over Bibee (4.56) - the recency-based thesis could reverse if Bibee regresses
- historical support data for away | 10-15% edge bucket shows weak a supportive track record historically - some caution warranted
- Cold weather (64.6F) provides a minor home-field tiebreaker against this pick
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CLE 57.2%
-9.7 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-9.7 pts
Total
7.5
+2.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.