FINAL: STL 6 — COL 8. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected STL 3.6 - COL 3.6 (STL at 51.8% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.1 total runs.
STL
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
COL
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLCOL
-1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (3,212 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
246
STL
246
Projected
STL 3.6 — COL 3.6
Actual
STL 6 — COL 8
Pick Results
COL @ STL NRFInrfiLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kyle Freeland L
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF25%92 mph11% whiff
FC22%88 mph19% whiff
KC20%82 mph33% whiff
Matthew Liberatore L
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%94 mph12% whiff
SL24%86 mph35% whiff
CU16%80 mph35% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
90°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.061 Total: 1.032
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.94ERA
4.27FIP
7.67K/9
3.87BB/9
1.49WHIP
STL
4.31ERA
4.33FIP
8.03K/9
4.20BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-17.2% EV
-115
F5_ML HOME
-11.5% EV
-159
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+8.7% EV
-105
F5 UNDER 4.5
+8.4% EV
-104
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-8.0% EV
+146
ML HOME
-6.0% EV
-147
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
2.0 runs
39.1% win
STL F5
2.1 runs
43.8% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
57.6%
YRFI
42.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
68%
No HR
10%
Hunter Goodman COL30.0%
ISO: 0.244 | Barrel: 16.7% | vs Matthew Liberatore | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.224 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Kyle Freeland | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Everson Pereira STL23.8%
ISO: 0.154 | Barrel: 10.6% | vs Kyle Freeland | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kyle Freeland
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Matthew Liberatore
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Jeff Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Blas Castano RP15-DAY-IL
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL2 injured
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 51.8%
-8.0 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-8.0 pts
Total
8.5
+8.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.