CWS vs CHC prediction for August 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 5.2 - CWS 4.8. CHC is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 10.0 total runs.
CHC
5.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
CWS
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCCWS
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (3,347 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
357
CHC
357
Projected
CHC 5.2 — CWS 4.8
Actual
CHC 4 — CWS 3
Starting Pitcher Matchup
R TBD
CWS
Clay Holmes R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI50%94 mph10% whiff
ST20%82 mph25% whiff
CH15%89 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
74°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.072 Total: 1.039
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
3.75ERA
4.14FIP
8.97K/9
4.39BB/9
1.32WHIP
CHC
4.03ERA
4.58FIP
9.04K/9
4.00BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.4 runs
35.2% win
CHC F5
3.1 runs
50.5% win
F5 Total
5.5
NRFI
56.0%
YRFI
44.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
CHC8 injured
Daniel Palencia RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Dansby Swanson SS10-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.