CWS vs STL prediction for September 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 4.7 - CWS 4.2. STL is favored with a 56.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.0 total runs.
STL
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CWS
4.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLCWS
+1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.4% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CWS
246
STL
357
Projected
STL 4.7 — CWS 4.2
Actual
STL 3 — CWS 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
David Sandlin R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF37%97 mph15% whiff
CU26%83 mph25% whiff
FC17%91 mph23% whiff
Michael McGreevy R
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF25%92 mph12% whiff
CH20%87 mph26% whiff
SI16%91 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
82°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.045 Total: 1.023
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CWS
4.01ERA
4.30FIP
8.89K/9
4.29BB/9
1.33WHIP
STL
4.54ERA
4.27FIP
8.27K/9
4.16BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CWS F5
2.3 runs
36.3% win
STL F5
2.9 runs
48.9% win
F5 Total
5.2
NRFI
51.2%
YRFI
48.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.13
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CWSHealthy
STL6 injured
Peter Strzelecki RP15-DAY-IL
JJ Wetherholt 2B10-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
Max Rajcic RP60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.