FINAL: LAA 3 — DET 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAA 4.7 - DET 5.2 (DET at 50.3% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 9.8 total runs.
LAA
4.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
DET
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAADET
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
DETLAA L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 48.3% (2,930 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
357
LAA
357
Projected
LAA 4.7 — DET 5.2
Actual
LAA 3 — DET 2
Pick Results
DET @ LAA NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Casey Mize R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%94 mph24% whiff
SL25%88 mph27% whiff
FS24%88 mph34% whiff
Ryan Johnson R
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC31%90 mph31% whiff
SI29%92 mph3% whiff
FS26%84 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
86°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.084 Total: 1.046
thin air, 9mph out
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.22ERA
4.23FIP
8.86K/9
4.10BB/9
1.37WHIP
LAA
4.26ERA
4.74FIP
9.10K/9
5.18BB/9
1.42WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-30.0% EV
-137
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.8% EV
+114
ML AWAY
-9.6% EV
-139
F5_ML AWAY
-9.3% EV
-149
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-8.4% EV
-123
ML HOME
+3.4% EV
+118
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.8 runs
45.9% win
LAA F5
2.5 runs
40.2% win
F5 Total
5.3
NRFI
52.7%
YRFI
47.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.03
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.2
Over 0.5 HR
88%
Over 1.5 HR
64%
No HR
12%
Riley Greene DET29.3%
ISO: 0.155 | Barrel: 17.1% | vs Ryan Johnson | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Mike Trout LAA28.8%
ISO: 0.241 | Barrel: 15.8% | vs Casey Mize | Park: 0.98x
Dillon Dingler DET28.8%
ISO: 0.294 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Ryan Johnson | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Casey Mize
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Johnson
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
Javier Baez SS60-DAY-IL
Bailey Horn RP60-DAY-IL
Burch Smith RP60-DAY-IL
Gleyber Torres 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
Travis d'Arnaud C60-DAY-IL
Ben Joyce RP60-DAY-IL
Gustavo Campero C10-DAY-IL
Sebastian Rivero C10-DAY-IL
Adam Frazier 2B10-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Game completed (LAA won 3-2). Model 49.7% LAA home at +3.4% ML edge MISSED direction entirely. Market favored away at 52.6% (DET -138), model favored home at 47.4% (LAA +118). Actual result: LAA won 3-2 on home field. Model's positive edge on LAA home proved correct directionally, but the edge was inverted from probability terms. LAA's Ryan Johnson (B-, 5.6% K%, C+ command 0.604) vs DET's Casey Mize (B, 9.3% K%, B+ command 0.708) suggested away advantage to market; model (correctly) spotted home-field value despite weaker away SP. Model's +3.4% edge on home, despite market favoring away, proved wise — but small margin suggests market wasn't far off.
Key Factors
- Ryan Johnson (LAA home): B-, 5.6% K%, 0.604 command — weaker strikeout stuff but home-field edge
- Casey Mize (DET away): B, 9.3% K%, 0.708 command — superior command and K-rate suggest away value
- Angel Stadium weather: 85.6F + 9.2 mph tailwind = +1.046 total multiplier, +1.084 HR multiplier favoring home
- Market favored away at 52.6% despite weather advantage to home
Risk Factors
- Game complete, not actionable
- Small edges like +3.4% don't show strong model conviction vs market wisdom
GAME FINALHOME TEAM SUCCESSWEATHER TAILWIND ADVANTAGE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 50.3%
-30.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-30.0 pts
Total
9.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.