FINAL: OAK 1 — DET 13. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected OAK 3.4 - DET 4.5 (DET at 54.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 10.5. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
OAK
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 10.5
DET
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKDET
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
10.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
DETOAK L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 58.7% (3,106 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
346
OAK
135
Projected
OAK 3.4 — DET 4.5
Actual
OAK 1 — DET 13
Pick Results
OAK +1.5run_lineLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Framber Valdez L
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI46%94 mph9% whiff
CU28%78 mph30% whiff
CH19%89 mph21% whiff
Jack Perkins R
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF36%96 mph14% whiff
ST29%86 mph34% whiff
CH19%90 mph43% whiff
Weather Impact
Sutter Health Park
98°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.047 Total: 1.024
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.14ERA
4.39FIP
8.54K/9
4.00BB/9
1.35WHIP
OAK
4.81ERA
4.38FIP
9.72K/9
4.15BB/9
1.47WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 10.5
-23.3% EV
-123
F5 UNDER 6.5
+22.9% EV
-145
NRFI NRFI
+18.5% EV
+130
TOTAL UNDER 10.5
+16.4% EV
+102
F5_ML HOME
-11.0% EV
+114
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-7.2% EV
+105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
2.4 runs
49.1% win
OAK F5
1.8 runs
33.8% win
F5 Total
4.2
NRFI
59.5%
YRFI
40.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.79
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.5
Over 0.5 HR
90%
Over 1.5 HR
70%
No HR
10%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Framber Valdez
0.0 K projected
DET | K/9: 0.0
Jack Perkins
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Vierling CF10-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Jackson Jobe SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
Mark Leiter Jr. RP60-DAY-IL
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
J.T. Ginn SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
Zack Gelof 3B10-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Detroit massively compromised (OF depth, SS IL, 60-day SP pile-up); Oakland improving but weak. Model projects 7.3 total; market 10.5. UNDER 10.5 at 20.3% edge (model 59.5% vs market 39.5%) is ELITE — market pricing worst-case DET scenario while missing OAK recovery trend. Both SPs weak (Springs 6.73 ERA, Holton 3.28 ERA shows OAK slight edge), but DET lineup implosion drives low-scoring expectation.
Key Factors
- DET injuries CATASTROPHIC: Parker Meadows (CF), Trey Sweeney (SS), Reese Olson (SP) all 60-day IL; Matt Vierling, Kerry Carpenter also banged up — lineup at 70% strength
- OAK building (Kurtz 30% HR, solid bench) vs DET imploding; but 10.5 total overbakes DET collapse
- Pitcher context: Springs 6.73 ERA (C+ grade, C stuff 0.294) vs Holton 3.28 ERA (B- grade, C+ stuff 0.32) — Holton edge clear (3.45 ERA gap)
- F5 UNDER 6.5 shows 28.8% edge (model 76.2% prob) — STRONGEST F5 EDGE ON ENTIRE SLATE; DET will struggle early
- NRFI 53.9% (22.8% edge) — surprisingly strong first-inning suppression despite weak SPs; suggests lineup context dominates
Risk Factors
- 20.3% edge on total is EXTREME (third-highest on slate) — HIGH_EDGE_WARNING applies hard; overconfidence penalty -20% unit
- DET could show up (Jinkins, Kurtz, Dingler capable hitters) — unexpected offensive spark possible vs weak Springs
- OAK bullpen 4.81 ERA (0.936 quality, below avg) — if game goes to relief, runs could escalate; Springs fatigue in heat (98.3F) possible
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
DET 54.0%
-2.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-2.0 pts
Total
10.5
+16.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.