DET vs SF prediction for August 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.9 - DET 3.5. SF is favored with a 54.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.5 total runs.
SF
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
DET
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFDET
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.7% (3,212 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
DET
245
SF
246
Projected
SF 3.9 — DET 3.5
Actual
SF 0 — DET 8
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jackson Jobe R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%96 mph13% whiff
SL30%89 mph23% whiff
CH17%85 mph44% whiff
Landen Roupp R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI35%93 mph8% whiff
CU26%77 mph34% whiff
CH20%87 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
66°F15 mph wind
HR: 1.092 Total: 1.053
15mph out
Bullpen Comparison
DET
4.40ERA
4.56FIP
8.43K/9
4.36BB/9
1.37WHIP
SF
4.51ERA
4.62FIP
7.13K/9
4.38BB/9
1.47WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
DET F5
1.8 runs
35.0% win
SF F5
2.2 runs
46.6% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
58.8%
YRFI
41.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.84
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
DET8 injured
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Vierling CF10-DAY-IL
Jack Flaherty SP15-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
SF8 injured
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto RF10-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.