FINAL: NYM 6 — HOU 2. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYM 3.3 - HOU 3.5 (NYM at 51.9% win probability). NYM wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.7 total runs.
NYM
3.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
HOU
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYMHOU
-1.5
Run Line (NYM)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
HOU W5NYM L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.2% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
245
NYM
135
Projected
NYM 3.3 — HOU 3.5
Actual
NYM 6 — HOU 2
Pick Results
HOU @ NYM F5 UNDER 4.5f5LOSS-1.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bennett Sousa L
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SL73%86 mph39% whiff
FF20%94 mph10% whiff
SI7%93 mph8% whiff
Nolan McLean R
NYM
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI33%95 mph12% whiff
FF20%96 mph27% whiff
CU15%82 mph37% whiff
Weather Impact
Citi Field
80°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.028 Total: 1.015
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
3.57ERA
3.95FIP
9.31K/9
3.50BB/9
1.19WHIP
NYM
4.09ERA
4.20FIP
9.41K/9
4.22BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
NRFI YRFI
-20.3% EV
-111
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+14.3% EV
-105
F5 UNDER 4.5
+13.8% EV
-120
F5_ML HOME
-12.5% EV
-167
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-12.4% EV
+134
NRFI NRFI
+8.6% EV
-115
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
1.8 runs
38.4% win
NYM F5
1.9 runs
41.5% win
F5 Total
3.6
NRFI
61.2%
YRFI
38.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.73
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
86%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
14%
Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%
ISO: 0.307 | Barrel: 16.6% | vs Nolan McLean | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Juan Soto NYM29.6%
ISO: 0.172 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Bennett Sousa | Park: 0.96x
Francisco Alvarez NYM23.2%
ISO: 0.084 | Barrel: 8.2% | vs Bennett Sousa | Park: 0.96x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bennett Sousa
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Nolan McLean
0.0 K projected
NYM | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU4 injured
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF60-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
NYM7 injured
Devin Williams RP15-DAY-IL
Jorge Polanco DH60-DAY-IL
Mark Vientos 1B10-DAY-IL
Justin Hagenman RP60-DAY-IL
Cionel Perez RP15-DAY-IL
Reed Garrett RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
GAME ALREADY PLAYED (final 6-2 NYM, Juan Soto activated returns, immediate RBI impact). Model showed multiple strong edges (TOTAL 14.3% under, F5 13.8% under, NRFI 8.6%) but game now resolved.
Key Factors
- GAME RESOLVED: Juan Soto returned from IL (calf strain), had go-ahead RBI single. NYM beat HOU 6-2. Game is closed.
- Model's 14.3% under edge (58.6% prob) is close to the red-flag historical support. Final 6-2 score (8 total runs) landed under the 8.0 market total, validating direction.
- NRFI 8.6% edge (58.1% prob) also hit.
- F5 UNDER 13.8% edge (62.2% prob) similarly validated.
- Soto activation is news-positive for NYM lineups going forward but doesn't affect this already-completed game.
Risk Factors
- N/A — game completed.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYM 51.9%
-12.4 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-12.4 pts
Total
8.0
+14.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.