FINAL: SD 3 — HOU 6. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SD 3.4 - HOU 3.6 (HOU at 50.9% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
SD
3.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
HOU
3.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDHOU
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
HOUSD W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.4% (3,199 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
246
SD
135
Projected
SD 3.4 — HOU 3.6
Actual
SD 3 — HOU 6
Pick Results
SD F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-1.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Peter Lambert R
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF31%94 mph20% whiff
CH23%87 mph34% whiff
SL14%86 mph25% whiff
Michael King R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH28%86 mph28% whiff
SI28%93 mph13% whiff
ST20%82 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
77°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.007 Total: 1.002
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
3.46ERA
4.11FIP
9.26K/9
3.67BB/9
1.19WHIP
SD
3.26ERA
3.68FIP
9.55K/9
3.66BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-18.3% EV
-110
F5 UNDER 4.5
+16.0% EV
+100
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+9.3% EV
-110
NRFI NRFI
+9.0% EV
-120
F5_ML HOME
-7.6% EV
-120
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-5.4% EV
+162
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
1.9 runs
40.1% win
SD F5
1.9 runs
40.2% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
63.7%
YRFI
36.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.71
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
83%
Over 1.5 HR
52%
No HR
17%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Peter Lambert
0.0 K projected
HOU | K/9: 0.0
Michael King
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
HOU4 injured
Brice Matthews CF10-DAY-IL
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
SD8 injured
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
David Morgan RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
With a true even-money SP matchup and Petco's well-documented -10% run suppression, the Total Under and NRFI edges here are park-factor driven and don't require picking a side.
Key Factors
- King (home) 3.73 ERA and Lambert (away) 3.30 ERA are both solid mid-rotation arms - genuine coin-flip SP matchup with zero ML edge (0.0%)
- Petco Park factor is 0.9 - a confirmed -10% run suppressor, one of the strongest park effects on the slate
- Total UNDER 8.5 carries a 9.3% edge (model 57.2%), directly supported by the park factor
- NRFI edge is 9.0% (model 59.6%) - clears our 8% actionable threshold
- F5 UNDER edge is 16.0% - the strongest secondary confirmation on this game
Risk Factors
- No ML edge means this is purely a totals/NRFI play, not a side play
- Total market is globally disabled by the calibrator right now - treat as directional signal, prioritize NRFI for actual bet placement
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
HOU 50.9%
-3.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-3.5 pts
Total
8.5
+9.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.