FINAL: COL 3 — KC 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected COL 5.5 - KC 5.6 (COL at 50.8% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.5. Model projects 11.1 total runs.
COL
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.5
KC
5.6
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLKC
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
11.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.4% (3,106 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
468
COL
467
Projected
COL 5.5 — KC 5.6
Actual
COL 3 — KC 1
Pick Results
KC F5 MLf5_mlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Luinder Avila R
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI28%96 mph17% whiff
FF26%96 mph15% whiff
SL22%88 mph31% whiff
Ryan Feltner R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%95 mph12% whiff
SL25%89 mph29% whiff
CH16%86 mph46% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
90°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.132 Total: 1.066
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
KC
5.04ERA
5.30FIP
7.74K/9
4.54BB/9
1.49WHIP
COL
5.06ERA
4.38FIP
7.69K/9
3.82BB/9
1.50WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 11.5
-7.6% EV
+102
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-7.6% EV
+130
F5_ML HOME
-7.1% EV
-106
NRFI NRFI
+4.5% EV
+126
F5_ML AWAY
-3.6% EV
-118
ML AWAY
-3.0% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
3.2 runs
45.7% win
COL F5
3.0 runs
41.6% win
F5 Total
6.2
NRFI
49.8%
YRFI
50.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.13
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.2
Over 0.5 HR
95%
Over 1.5 HR
82%
No HR
5%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Luinder Avila
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Feltner
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
Stephen Kolek SP60-DAY-IL
Bobby Witt Jr. SS10-DAY-IL
Vinnie Pasquantino 1B10-DAY-IL
Nick Mears RP60-DAY-IL
Beck Way RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Jeff Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Blas Castano RP15-DAY-IL
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Coors Field is baseball's run factory (park factor 1.18, +15% runs baseline). Model projects 9.78 total; market 11.5. UNDER 11.5 at 5.6% edge (model 58.3% vs market 52.7%) is subtle but sharp in context of Coors-lite conditions. Wacha (3.89 ERA, KC away) suppresses runs vs Sugano (5.07 ERA, COL home struggling). High-altitude thin air (3,355 density alt) inflates HR multiplier 1.132, but strikeout-heavy SPs (Wacha 19.3%, Sugano 14.1%) keep baserunners down.
Key Factors
- Coors Field +1.18 multiplier (+15% baseline run inflation); density altitude 3,355 ft (thin air) inflates HR factor 1.132
- BUT pitcher context: Wacha 3.89 ERA (B- grade 0.443, B+ command 0.671) is solid; Sugano 5.07 ERA (C+ grade 0.349, D stuff 0.104) is struggling at home
- Strikeout rates key: Wacha 19.3% K-rate (not elite), Sugano 14.1% K-rate (below avg) — Wacha slightly better at limiting baserunners
- F5 UNDER 5.5 shows 10.2% edge (model 52.5%) — Kansas City's Wacha should suppress early runs
- F5_ML AWAY KC shows 8.7% edge (model 59.4% prob) — KC underdog value even in Coors
Risk Factors
- 11.5% edge on totals at 58.3% prob slightly exceeds calibration caution historical support — monitor for overconfidence
- Coors is historically unpredictable; thin air can spike individual HR (Hunter Goodman 30% HR prob for COL); one swing = 1-2 run swing
- COL bullpen terrible (5.06 ERA, 0.889 quality) — if game goes to relief, runs could spike; Wacha fatigue in altitude atmosphere possible
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
COL 50.8%
-1.9 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-1.9 pts
Total
11.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.