KC vs TOR prediction for August 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects TOR 2.9 - KC 3.4. KC is favored with a 51.6% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.3 total runs.
TOR
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
KC
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORKC
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.4% (3,347 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
135
TOR
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Randy Dobnak R
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI39%92 mph6% whiff
ST25%82 mph33% whiff
CH21%85 mph27% whiff
Spencer Miles R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI42%96 mph12% whiff
CU25%81 mph23% whiff
SL16%87 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
68°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.029 Total: 1.015
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.87ERA
5.05FIP
7.85K/9
4.86BB/9
1.52WHIP
TOR
3.73ERA
4.17FIP
8.33K/9
3.81BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
1.8 runs
44.5% win
TOR F5
1.4 runs
32.5% win
F5 Total
3.1
NRFI
69.6%
YRFI
30.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.55
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Michael Massey 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Jac Caglianone RFDAY-TO-DAY
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
Tony Gonsolin SP15-DAY-IL
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
Beck Way RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Smith 2B10-DAY-IL
Joe Mantiply RP60-DAY-IL
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Jake Bloss SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Model Edge & Sizing
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
More Projections Today
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.