FINAL: TOR 3 — KC 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TOR 2.9 - KC 3.4 (KC at 50.9% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.3 total runs.
TOR
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
KC
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORKC
-1.5
Run Line (TOR)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
KCTOR W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.6% (3,572 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
KC
135
TOR
135
Projected
TOR 2.9 — KC 3.4
Actual
TOR 3 — KC 0
Pick Results
KC @ TOR NRFInrfiWIN+0.83u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Randy Dobnak R
KC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI39%92 mph6% whiff
ST25%82 mph33% whiff
CH21%85 mph27% whiff
Spencer Miles R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI42%96 mph12% whiff
CU25%81 mph23% whiff
SL16%87 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
71°F10 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.035 Total: 1.018
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
KC
4.87ERA
5.05FIP
7.85K/9
4.86BB/9
1.52WHIP
TOR
3.73ERA
4.17FIP
8.33K/9
3.81BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 UNDER 4.5
+31.1% EV
-102
TOTAL OVER 8.5
-26.7% EV
-122
F5_ML HOME
-20.9% EV
-149
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
+19.4% EV
+100
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-16.2% EV
+134
F5_ML AWAY
+15.8% EV
+120
First 5 Innings & NRFI
KC F5
1.7 runs
44.4% win
TOR F5
1.3 runs
32.0% win
F5 Total
3.0
NRFI
70.4%
YRFI
29.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.55
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
81%
Over 1.5 HR
51%
No HR
19%
Jac Caglianone KC30.0%
ISO: 0.220 | Barrel: 12.4% | vs Spencer Miles | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Kazuma Okamoto TOR25.1%
ISO: 0.197 | Barrel: 11.9% | vs Randy Dobnak | Park: 1.01x
Bobby Witt Jr. KC21.3%
ISO: 0.164 | Barrel: 8.5% | vs Spencer Miles | Park: 1.01x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Randy Dobnak
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Spencer Miles
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
KC8 injured
Nick Mears RP60-DAY-IL
Michael Massey 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
Tony Gonsolin SP15-DAY-IL
Maikel Garcia 3B10-DAY-IL
Beck Way RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Shane Bieber SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Smith 2B10-DAY-IL
Joe Mantiply RP60-DAY-IL
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
The most dangerous full-game UNDER trap on the slate (19.4% edge, historically mixed a supportive track record) should be avoided entirely; instead NRFI (14.8% edge, historically well-supported a supportive track record) captures Randy Dobnak's elite control (1.71 ERA, minimal walk rate) in a cool 70.7F dome.
Key Factors
- EXTREME EDGE OVERCONFIDENCE: UNDER 8.5 shows 19.4% model edge (59.7% vs 40.3% market) but falls historically mixed — historical data shows high-edge unders failing over half the time
- NRFI edge 14.8%, model 64.5% prob, historically well-supported a supportive track record — this is the actionable play
- Pitcher quality: Randy Dobnak (1.71 ERA, LHP, minimal BB rate) vs Spencer Miles (3.26 ERA, RHP, 5.7% BB rate) — both are first-inning specialists with strong command
- Temperature 70.7F (coolest day on slate) + Rogers Centre dome closed = baseline pitcher-favorable, runs-dampening conditions
- Model 6.27 runs vs market 8.5 = 2.23-run gap (26% underestimation) — massive discrepancy suggesting model miscalibration on the full-game total
Risk Factors
- HIGH_EDGE_WARNING: 19.4% edge on UNDER paired with historically mixed is a textbook overconfidence pattern repeated multiple times on this slate
- Market pricing UNDER at only 40.3% implied probability despite model 59.7% suggests the market disagrees strongly — respect that signal
- If Dobnak struggles early (rare given his profile), runs could burst, hurting NRFI as well as UNDER
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
KC 50.9%
-16.2 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-16.2 pts
Total
8.5
+19.4 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.