LAD vs ARI prediction for August 7, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 4.1 - LAD 4.8. LAD is favored with a 54.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.9 total runs.
ARI
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAD
4.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARILAD
+1.5
Run Line (ARI)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.8% (3,199 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
357
ARI
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Yoshinobu Yamamoto R
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FS27%91 mph31% whiff
FF26%96 mph22% whiff
FC14%92 mph18% whiff
Brandon Pfaadt R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF24%93 mph10% whiff
SI19%93 mph7% whiff
CU16%82 mph31% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
109°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.089 Total: 1.045
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
4.08ERA
4.02FIP
10.07K/9
4.19BB/9
1.28WHIP
ARI
3.87ERA
3.90FIP
7.89K/9
3.01BB/9
1.19WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
2.6 runs
48.4% win
ARI F5
2.1 runs
36.3% win
F5 Total
4.8
NRFI
58.0%
YRFI
42.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Gavin Stone SP60-DAY-IL
Bobby Miller SP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Snell SP60-DAY-IL
Dalton Rushing C10-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ARI8 injured
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
Ryan Thompson RP15-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Martinez RP60-DAY-IL
Blake Walston SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.