LAD vs ATL prediction for August 26, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ATL 4.9 - LAD 5.2. ATL is favored with a 51.4% win probability. ATL wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 10.1 total runs.
ATL
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
LAD
5.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
ATLLAD
+1.5
Run Line (ATL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.2% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
LAD
357
ATL
357
Projected
ATL 4.9 — LAD 5.2
Actual
ATL 6 — LAD 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Roki Sasaki R
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%98 mph16% whiff
FS28%90 mph34% whiff
SL21%87 mph38% whiff
AJ Smith-Shawver R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF43%96 mph11% whiff
FS32%83 mph40% whiff
CU14%77 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Truist Park
90°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.052 Total: 1.026
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
LAD
3.99ERA
3.90FIP
10.12K/9
4.20BB/9
1.27WHIP
ATL
2.78ERA
3.21FIP
9.89K/9
3.06BB/9
1.10WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
LAD F5
3.3 runs
47.2% win
ATL F5
3.0 runs
40.1% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
44.8%
YRFI
55.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.26
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
LAD8 injured
Justin Wrobleski SP15-DAY-IL
Will Smith C60-DAY-IL
Jake Cousins RP60-DAY-IL
Andy Pages CF10-DAY-IL
Edwin Diaz RP15-DAY-IL
Will Klein RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
ATL7 injured
Robert Suarez RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Reynaldo Lopez RP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Jurickson Profar LFSUSPENSION
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.