MIA vs OAK prediction for July 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 3.8 - MIA 4.1. MIA is favored with a 51.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
OAK
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.5
MIA
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKMIA
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
11.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.9% (2,777 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIA
246
OAK
246
Projected
OAK 3.8 — MIA 4.1
Actual
OAK 2 — MIA 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Eury Pérez R
MIA
FF47%98 mph20% whiff
ST15%83 mph34% whiff
SL15%88 mph40% whiff
Gage Jump L
OAK
FF48%96 mph18% whiff
SL26%88 mph24% whiff
CU12%83 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Oakland Coliseum
65°F10 mph wind
HR: 0.988 Total: 0.992
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIA
3.85ERA
3.56FIP
9.97K/9
4.48BB/9
1.21WHIP
OAK
4.87ERA
3.91FIP
9.81K/9
4.20BB/9
1.44WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 11.5
-45.7% EV
-102
TOTAL UNDER 11.5
+32.8% EV
-120
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-29.7% EV
-130
NRFI NRFI
+16.2% EV
+134
F5_ML AWAY
-16.0% EV
-130
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-12.6% EV
+108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIA F5
2.1 runs
38.9% win
OAK F5
2.5 runs
46.9% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
55.1%
YRFI
44.9%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
94%
Over 1.5 HR
77%
No HR
6%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Eury Pérez
0.0 K projected
MIA | K/9: 0.0
Gage Jump
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIA7 injured
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Janson Junk SP15-DAY-IL
Josh Ekness RP60-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
Ronny Henriquez RP60-DAY-IL
+1 more
OAK8 injured
Shea Langeliers CDAY-TO-DAY
Brent Rooker DH10-DAY-IL
Tyler Soderstrom LF10-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS10-DAY-IL
Denzel Clarke CF60-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=301)
SCHEDULED GAME. Model gives EXTREME +32.8% edge on UNDER (72.6% prob) — SAME OVERCONFIDENCE TRAP as BOS @ LAA. 72.6% prob + 32.8% edge = historically 45-50% WR. Market set total at 11.5 (very high for a pitcher's duel). Gage Jump (home, B, 7.4% K rate, 6.2% BB rate) vs Eury Pérez (away, B-, 26.2% K rate, 10.2% BB rate) — AWAY has clear SP edge. Cool weather (65.3°F) + 10.2mph in wind = STRONG under environment. Despite model's overconfidence, the UNDER is legitimate due to environment + SP quality. Take UNDER at 0.5-1.0 units, acknowledging zone risk (50.1% WR YELLOW).
Key Factors
- Eury Pérez (away, B-, 26.2% K rate, 10.2% BB rate) >> Gage Jump (home, B, 7.4% K rate, 6.2% BB rate) — clear away SP edge
- Cool weather 65.3°F + 10.2mph in = strong under-lean environment (-1.0 runs estimated)
- Market set high total (11.5) vs model projection (7.95 runs) = massive +3.55 run gap suggests market is mispriced high
- +32.8% under edge with 72.6% prob historically produces 45-50% WR—overconfident
Risk Factors
- HIGH_EDGE_WARNING on totals (+32.8% exceeds calibration max by 12.8%)
- Despite edge legitimacy, zone data (50.1% WR YELLOW) suggests coin flip
HIGH EDGE WARNINGUNDER VALUEPITCHER ADVANTAGEOVERCONFIDENCE TRAP
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIA 51.8%
-29.7 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-29.7 pts
Total
11.5
+32.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →