MIN vs ARI prediction for June 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 6.2 - MIN 7.5. MIN is favored with a 54.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 13.7 total runs.
ARI
6.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
MIN
7.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARIMIN
-1.5
Run Line (ARI)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.9% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
689
ARI
468
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Mike Paredes R
MIN
FF40%93 mph16% whiff
CH25%87 mph26% whiff
ST21%79 mph21% whiff
Jose Cabrera R
ARI
Weather Impact
Chase Field
100°F1 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.072 Total: 1.036
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.99ERA
4.47FIP
8.81K/9
4.51BB/9
1.47WHIP
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 9.5
-40.1% EV
-120
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+33.2% EV
-102
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-22.2% EV
-189
F5_ML HOME
-19.9% EV
-130
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-18.5% EV
+155
F5 OVER 5.5
+17.3% EV
-108
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
4.2 runs
51.5% win
ARI F5
3.4 runs
38.0% win
F5 Total
7.6
NRFI
38.8%
YRFI
61.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.54
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.9
Over 0.5 HR
98%
Over 1.5 HR
90%
No HR
2%
Byron Buxton MIN30.0%
ISO: 0.379 | Barrel: 19.0% | vs Jose Cabrera | Park: 1.06x
Corbin Carroll ARI30.0%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Mike Paredes | Park: 1.06x Platoon: 1.12x
Gabriel Moreno ARI30.0%
ISO: 0.180 | Barrel: 8.9% | vs Mike Paredes | Park: 1.06x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Mike Paredes
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Jose Cabrera
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Mick Abel SP15-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
Ryan Jeffers C10-DAY-IL
Bailey Ober SP15-DAY-IL
Kaelen Culpepper SSDAY-TO-DAY
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
ARI8 injured
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP15-DAY-IL
Juan Centeno CDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
James McCann C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=222)
OVER 9.5 has massive +33.2% edge (67.3% model prob) at Chase Field in extreme heat (100.3F, lowest humidity 8% in MLB) with thin air (3177 ft density altitude). Away SP Mike Paredes is mediocre (C+, 6% K-rate) vs home SP Jose Cabrera (TBD, no data) — model sees 13.65 runs; market 9.5 is extreme underestimate.
Key Factors
- 100.3F heat with 8% humidity in enclosed Chase Field (retractable roof closed) — extreme dry air boost runs ~+0.8 runs vs baseline
- Density altitude 3177 ft (near Colorado thin air) — air ball carry maximized
- Paredes (away SP, 6% K-rate, C+ stuff) can't suppress offensive run potential
- Cabrera (home SP) TBD data — introduces uncertainty but doesn't change park effect
Risk Factors
- YELLOW zone (50.1% WR, n=222) on mega-edges — overconfidence warning; edge 33.2% is highest on board
- Roof is closed (controlled environment) but heat still applies to ball carry physics
WEATHER IMPACTPARK FACTORHEAT EFFECTOVERS VALUEYELLOW ZONE
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIN 54.5%
-18.5 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-18.5 pts
Total
9.5
+33.2 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →