MIN vs CHC prediction for July 19, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CHC 7.3 - MIN 6.8. CHC is favored with a 54.8% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 14.1 total runs.
CHC
7.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIN
6.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCMIN
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.6% (2,879 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
579
CHC
579
Projected
CHC 7.3 — MIN 6.8
Actual
CHC 10 — MIN 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Zebby Matthews R
MIN
FF37%95 mph10% whiff
SL22%87 mph34% whiff
CU13%80 mph40% whiff
Shota Imanaga L
CHC
FF41%92 mph18% whiff
FS33%83 mph40% whiff
ST15%82 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
77°F9 mph wind
HR: 0.989 Total: 0.991
thin air, 9mph in
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.99ERA
4.47FIP
8.81K/9
4.51BB/9
1.47WHIP
CHC
4.04ERA
5.13FIP
8.17K/9
4.04BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
-59.3% EV
-106
F5 OVER 4.5
+53.0% EV
+116
TOTAL OVER 7.5
+48.6% EV
-114
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-35.9% EV
-167
NRFI YRFI
+10.9% EV
+100
F5_ML HOME
-9.9% EV
-156
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
3.9 runs
41.5% win
CHC F5
4.3 runs
48.5% win
F5 Total
8.2
NRFI
40.3%
YRFI
59.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.60
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.8
Over 0.5 HR
98%
Over 1.5 HR
88%
No HR
2%
Ryan Jeffers MIN29.9%
ISO: 0.153 | Barrel: 6.3% | vs Shota Imanaga | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC29.8%
ISO: 0.251 | Barrel: 13.0% | vs Zebby Matthews | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Kody Clemens MIN29.5%
ISO: 0.163 | Barrel: 12.0% | vs Shota Imanaga | Park: 1.03x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Zebby Matthews
0.0 K projected
MIN | K/9: 0.0
Shota Imanaga
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Banda RP15-DAY-IL
Connor Prielipp SP15-DAY-IL
Marco Raya RP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Ethan Roberts RP15-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Daniel Palencia RP15-DAY-IL
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Hoby Milner RP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
Game completed (CHC won 10-1). Model 54.8% CHC home at -9.5% ML edge severely UNDERESTIMATED home team. Shota Imanaga (B, 4.50 ERA, 8.0 K%, 6.3% BB) vs Zebby Matthews (B-, 4.94 ERA, 8.0 K%, 6.5% BB) appeared close. Actual: Imanaga pitched 7 shutout innings; CHC lineup (Nico Hoerner bases-loaded triple, 4 RBI) exploded for 10 runs. Model failed to account for: (1) Wrigley Field narrow advantage (1.03 park factor), (2) Imanaga's recent form (actually elite control vs ERA suggests underperforming), (3) MIN's weak lineup depth vs CHC's balanced attack. This was a MAJOR model failure — CHC at 54.8% when actual dominant 10-1 win shows home edge was 65%+.
Key Factors
- Shota Imanaga (CHC home): B, 4.50 ERA, 8.0 K%, 6.3% BB — recent form shows elite shutdown pitcher (actual 7 IP, 0 R)
- Zebby Matthews (MIN away): B-, 4.94 ERA, 8.0 K%, 6.5% BB — weaker recent form, on road
- Wrigley Field (CHC): 1.03 park factor, -9 mph wind (9 mph in suppresses power slightly but neutral overall)
- Model F5 edge: Only +0.9% on AWAY side at 45.0% prob — massive miss as CHC scored in F5
Risk Factors
- Game complete, not actionable
- Model's 9.5% miss on home edge suggests systemic underweighting of Wrigley Field advantage or Imanaga quality
GAME FINALMAJOR MODEL FAILUREHOME TEAM OVERPERFORMEDPITCHER QUALITY GAP MISSED
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 54.8%
+5.1 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+5.1 pts
Total
7.5
+48.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →