MIN vs SD prediction for August 21, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 4.3 - MIN 3.7. SD is favored with a 55.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
SD
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
MIN
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDMIN
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.2% (3,472 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
246
SD
246
Projected
SD 4.3 — MIN 3.7
Actual
SD 6 — MIN 2
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dean Kremer R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FS28%83 mph38% whiff
FF25%93 mph12% whiff
FC16%87 mph34% whiff
Casey Mize R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%94 mph20% whiff
SL27%88 mph25% whiff
FS24%88 mph30% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
78°F5 mph wind
HR: 1.034 Total: 1.017
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.03ERA
3.80FIP
9.19K/9
3.87BB/9
1.35WHIP
SD
3.16ERA
3.70FIP
9.63K/9
3.77BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
2.1 runs
38.7% win
SD F5
2.4 runs
44.5% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
61.3%
YRFI
38.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.78
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Joe Ryan SP15-DAY-IL
Austin Martin RF10-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.