MIN vs SEA prediction for July 31, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 2.8 - MIN 3.3. MIN is favored with a 52.2% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.2 total runs.
SEA
2.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
MIN
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEAMIN
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 56.1% (3,106 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIN
135
SEA
135
Projected
SEA 2.8 — MIN 3.3
Actual
SEA 3 — MIN 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Connor Prielipp L
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF30%96 mph13% whiff
SL29%88 mph26% whiff
CU17%82 mph34% whiff
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%96 mph20% whiff
SL24%86 mph34% whiff
FS14%82 mph36% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
79°F4 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.014 Total: 1.006
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIN
4.35ERA
4.13FIP
8.56K/9
4.13BB/9
1.38WHIP
SEA
3.38ERA
3.65FIP
8.87K/9
3.44BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIN F5
1.8 runs
44.0% win
SEA F5
1.4 runs
34.1% win
F5 Total
3.2
NRFI
67.4%
YRFI
32.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.59
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIN8 injured
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
Byron Buxton CF10-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP15-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP60-DAY-IL
Garrett Acton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Luke Raley RFDAY-TO-DAY
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Seattle ace Bryce Miller (2.97 ERA, B grade, 26.9% K-rate, +0.775 command) vs Minnesota's Zebby Matthews (5.63 ERA, B- grade, 18.4% K-rate, weak stuff). Model projects 5.24 total (lowest on slate); market 7.5. UNDER 7.5 at 18.4% edge (model 59.2% vs market 40.8%) is ELITE — cold park (T-Mobile 0.89 multiplier, 78.6F marine layer) + ace suppression = low-scoring lock.
Key Factors
- ELITE PITCHER MISMATCH: Bryce Miller 2.97 ERA (B grade 0.603, B- stuff 0.462, elite command 0.775) vs Zebby Matthews 5.63 ERA (B- grade 0.423, C stuff 0.259) — 2.66 ERA gap is elite-tier
- Miller K-rate 26.9% (elite strikeout) vs Matthews 18.4% (below avg) — huge strikeout differential suppresses baserunners
- Park context: T-Mobile 0.89 multiplier (coldest park environment on slate besides PETCO 0.999), marine layer effect, cool 78.6F — weather adds -0.10 runs
- F5 UNDER 4.5 shows 32.2% edge (model 71.5% prob) — ELITE first-5 suppression; Miller dominates early
- NRFI 67.0% prob (10.7% edge) — strongest NRFI edge on slate except MIL @ LAA
Risk Factors
- 18.4% edge approaches extreme territory — HIGH_EDGE_WARNING; high edges correlate with 38-40% historical WR
- SEA missing day-to-day fielders (Brendan Donovan 3B, J.P. Crawford SS on IL) — lineup depth reduced, but doesn't impact low-scoring narrative
- MIN could explode early vs weak Matthews (5.63 ERA); one bad inning = 2-3 run swing
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.