FINAL: LAA 10 — NYY 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAA 2.7 - NYY 5.3 (NYY at 65.8% win probability). the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
LAA
2.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
NYY
5.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAANYY
N/A
Run Line
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
NYY W4LAA L4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 64.0% (3,639 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
NYY
357
LAA
135
Projected
LAA 2.7 — NYY 5.3
Actual
LAA 10 — NYY 1
Pick Results
NYY @ LAA F5 UNDER 4.5f5LOSS-0.55u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Elmer Rodríguez R
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI45%96 mph15% whiff
FF20%95 mph19% whiff
ST14%80 mph54% whiff
Walbert Ureña R
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH33%91 mph32% whiff
SI31%98 mph17% whiff
FF21%98 mph20% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
77°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.071 Total: 1.039
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
NYY
3.11ERA
3.99FIP
8.46K/9
3.57BB/9
1.23WHIP
LAA
4.07ERA
4.22FIP
9.50K/9
3.90BB/9
1.34WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
+18.9% EV
-116
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
+17.9% EV
+138
ML HOME
-12.7% EV
+110
NRFI YRFI
-10.0% EV
-104
F5 OVER 4.5
-8.1% EV
-106
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-7.2% EV
-122
First 5 Innings & NRFI
NYY F5
3.1 runs
60.4% win
LAA F5
1.6 runs
24.5% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
55.2%
YRFI
44.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.1
Over 0.5 HR
87%
Over 1.5 HR
60%
No HR
13%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.305 | Barrel: 15.7% | vs Walbert Ureña | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Mike Trout LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.200 | Barrel: 9.5% | vs Elmer Rodríguez | Park: 0.98x
Zach Neto LAA30.0%
ISO: 0.196 | Barrel: 9.9% | vs Elmer Rodríguez | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Elmer Rodríguez
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Walbert Ureña
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
NYY8 injured
George Lombard Jr. SSDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan McMahon 3B10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Fernando Cruz RP15-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP60-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
George Klassen SP15-DAY-IL
Nolan Schanuel 1B10-DAY-IL
Samy Natera Jr. RP15-DAY-IL
Gustavo Campero OF10-DAY-IL
Sam Bachman RP15-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1
Despite missing Judge and Stanton, the Yankees still project as 59.1% favorites because Elmer Rodriguez (5.08 ERA, 12.4% BB) is a clear liability against Walbert Urena (3.18 ERA) and NYY's bullpen (3.11 ERA, elite 2.09 closer) dwarfs LAA's (4.07 ERA) — the market's -120 line undervalues this specific depth and relief advantage.
Key Factors
- Specific pitcher mismatch: Rodriguez 5.08 ERA, 12.4% BB (shaky) vs Urena 3.18 ERA, B- stuff — clear edge to Yankees' opponent-facing pitcher
- Bullpen dominance: NYY 3.11 ERA (1.447 Q-rating, elite closer 2.09 ERA) vs LAA 4.07 ERA — nearly a full run of relief advantage
- Model accounts for Judge/Stanton absence and still favors NYY 59.1% — testament to organizational pitching/relief depth
- F5_ML away edge extreme at 20.7% (65.3% model prob) — suggests early-inning domination is underpriced by market
Risk Factors
- This lands in a historically RED/historically mixed for away ML fades (a supportive track record in the 5-10% edge bucket) — only overriding because of concrete, named drivers (bullpen ERA gap, specific SP mismatch), not just model overconfidence
- LAA home field carries modest tailwind (8.2mph wind out, 1.039x total multiplier, +0.3 runs) that could help LAA's offense close the gap
- If LAA jumps ahead early, bullpen advantage becomes less relevant late — model assumes average game state distribution
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 65.8%
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Total
7.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.