PHI vs KC prediction for July 4, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects KC 3.7 - PHI 4.7. PHI is favored with a 58.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
KC
3.7
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
PHI
4.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
KCPHI
+1.5
Run Line (KC)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 59.6% (2,777 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
357
KC
246
Projected
KC 3.7 — PHI 4.7
Actual
KC 1 — PHI 6
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Aaron Nola R
PHI
KC34%78 mph37% whiff
FF24%92 mph14% whiff
SI21%92 mph10% whiff
Luinder Avila R
KC
FF27%96 mph16% whiff
SI26%96 mph18% whiff
SL23%88 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Kauffman Stadium
74°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.014 Total: 1.005
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.19ERA
3.22FIP
10.30K/9
3.17BB/9
1.34WHIP
KC
4.34ERA
5.00FIP
8.61K/9
4.51BB/9
1.45WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-38.8% EV
-130
TOTAL OVER 9.0
-19.8% EV
-106
F5_ML AWAY
-11.6% EV
-149
TOTAL UNDER 9.0
+10.3% EV
-114
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-4.6% EV
+108
ML HOME
-4.0% EV
+132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.6 runs
44.4% win
KC F5
2.4 runs
41.8% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
49.5%
YRFI
50.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.13
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.8
Over 0.5 HR
93%
Over 1.5 HR
75%
No HR
7%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Aaron Nola
0.0 K projected
PHI | K/9: 0.0
Luinder Avila
0.0 K projected
KC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
PHI3 injured
Brad Keller RP15-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
KC8 injured
Stephen Kolek SPPATERNITY
Salvador Perez CDAY-TO-DAY
Kris Bubic SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Ragans SP60-DAY-IL
Carlos Estevez RP60-DAY-IL
Connor Seabold RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1YELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=301)
Game in progress (PHI 3, KC 0 early). Model shows weak away ML edge (+3.8% edge, 58.6% prob) and moderate under edge (+10.3%, 58.7% prob). Aaron Nola (away, B-, 22.9% K rate) vs Luinder Avila (home, C+, 20.6% K rate) — slight away SP advantage, but model's ML edge is minimal. Under lean reasonable. Early 3-0 PHI lead suggests model's pitching assumptions are playing out. However, no compelling conviction warranting a LEAN recommendation. SKIP.
Key Factors
- Aaron Nola (away, B-, 22.9% K rate, 8.0% BB rate) slight advantage over Luinder Avila (home, C+, 20.6% K rate, 14.4% BB rate)
- Cool weather (74.2°F) + 6mph in = under-friendly but modest
- +10.3% under edge reasonable (YELLOW zone, 50.1% WR)
Risk Factors
- Weak ML edge (+3.8%) suggests market efficient
NEUTRAL GAME
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
PHI 58.4%
-38.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-38.8 pts
Total
9.0
+10.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →