SD vs ARI prediction for August 6, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 4.4 - SD 4.5. SD is favored with a 50.3% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.8 total runs.
ARI
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
SD
4.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARISD
+1.5
Run Line (ARI)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 50.9% (3,170 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
346
ARI
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
TBD R TBD
SD
TBD R TBD
ARI
Weather Impact
Chase Field
105°F9 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.074 Total: 1.037
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SD
3.29ERA
3.73FIP
9.47K/9
3.69BB/9
1.24WHIP
ARI
3.61ERA
3.73FIP
7.90K/9
2.82BB/9
1.15WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
2.5 runs
42.7% win
ARI F5
2.5 runs
42.0% win
F5 Total
5.0
NRFI
58.0%
YRFI
42.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.88
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
David Morgan RP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
ARI8 injured
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
Ryan Thompson RP15-DAY-IL
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Justin Martinez RP60-DAY-IL
Blake Walston SP60-DAY-IL
Drey Jameson RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.