SEA vs MIL prediction for August 18, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIL 4.4 - SEA 3.7. MIL is favored with a 56.1% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
MIL
4.4
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SEA
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILSEA
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.1% (3,347 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
246
MIL
246
Projected
MIL 4.4 — SEA 3.7
Actual
MIL 22 — SEA 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryce Miller R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%96 mph16% whiff
FS26%85 mph31% whiff
SL10%88 mph28% whiff
Kyle Harrison L
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF58%95 mph28% whiff
SV30%82 mph28% whiff
CH10%86 mph21% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
79°F5 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.053 Total: 1.027
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.60ERA
3.91FIP
8.93K/9
3.39BB/9
1.29WHIP
MIL
3.38ERA
3.59FIP
9.14K/9
3.65BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
2.0 runs
37.6% win
MIL F5
2.4 runs
45.3% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
56.6%
YRFI
43.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.85
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Taylor Ward LFDAY-TO-DAY
Bryan Woo SPDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Colt Emerson SS10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Sal Frelick RF10-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Abner Uribe RP15-DAY-IL
Cooper Pratt SS10-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.