FINAL: OAK 8 — SEA 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected OAK 6.1 - SEA 6.0 (OAK at 52.6% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 12.0 total runs.
OAK
6.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
SEA
6.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKSEA
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SEA W5OAK W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.2% (3,908 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
468
OAK
468
Projected
OAK 6.1 — SEA 6.0
Actual
OAK 8 — SEA 7
Pick Results
OAK MLmlWIN+0.64u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryce Miller R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%96 mph16% whiff
FS24%85 mph29% whiff
SL11%87 mph29% whiff
Jacob Lopez L
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%90 mph18% whiff
SL34%76 mph28% whiff
FC20%86 mph24% whiff
Weather Impact
Sutter Health Park
75°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.978 Total: 0.985
8mph in
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
4.02ERA
4.19FIP
8.66K/9
3.36BB/9
1.33WHIP
OAK
5.07ERA
4.34FIP
9.54K/9
4.66BB/9
1.53WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.0
+26.7% EV
-103
NRFI NRFI
-14.0% EV
-111
F5_ML AWAY
-9.7% EV
-128
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-8.8% EV
+127
ML AWAY
-8.2% EV
-123
F5 OVER 4.5
+7.6% EV
-147
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
3.5 runs
43.7% win
OAK F5
3.6 runs
45.0% win
F5 Total
7.0
NRFI
43.0%
YRFI
57.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.46
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.5
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
86%
No HR
3%
Cal Raleigh SEA27.4%
ISO: 0.143 | Barrel: 10.7% | vs Jacob Lopez | Park: 0.94x Platoon: 1.12x
Dominic Canzone SEA27.0%
ISO: 0.225 | Barrel: 12.9% | vs Jacob Lopez | Park: 0.94x
Max Muncy OAK23.7%
ISO: 0.249 | Barrel: 14.1% | vs Bryce Miller | Park: 0.94x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Bryce Miller
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Jacob Lopez
0.0 K projected
OAK | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Nick Davila RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Brennen Davis CF60-DAY-IL
Colt Emerson SS60-DAY-IL
Emerson Hancock SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
Gage Jump SPDAY-TO-DAY
J.T. Ginn SP15-DAY-IL
Jacob Wilson SS60-DAY-IL
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer 3B60-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B60-DAY-IL
Tyler Soderstrom LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Both starters (Lopez 5.16 ERA, Miller 4.56 ERA) support some over-lean, but the model's 26.7% total edge is deep into overconfidence territory and wind blowing IN at 8.4mph partially offsets the run-giver profiles, leaving too much uncertainty for confident action.
Key Factors
- Both SPs hittable: Lopez 5.16 ERA, Miller 4.56 ERA - combined profile supports some over-lean
- Wind blowing IN 8.4mph (HR mult 0.985) partially offsets run-giver thesis, unlike a clean over setup
- 26.7% total edge is EXTREME overconfidence territory (historically mixed, a supportive track record)
- This is the third game tonight (with PIT/CHC, HOU/TB) showing 20%+ total edges - a systemic pattern suggesting model total calibration may be off tonight
Risk Factors
- 26.7% edge is among the largest on the slate - high overconfidence risk
- Wind-in conditions could suppress scoring more than the model accounts for
- Neither bullpen offers a clear tiebreaker signal
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
OAK 52.6%
+2.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+2.3 pts
Total
9.0
+26.7 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.