FINAL: COL 15 — SF 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected COL 5.5 - SF 6.1 (SF at 53.6% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.5. Model projects 11.6 total runs.
COL
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.5
SF
6.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLSF
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
11.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SFCOL W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.8% (2,758 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
468
COL
467
Projected
COL 5.5 — SF 6.1
Actual
COL 15 — SF 3
Pick Results
COL F5 MLf5_mlWIN+0.62u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Webb R
SF
SI32%92 mph10% whiff
CH24%86 mph28% whiff
ST20%84 mph18% whiff
Ryan Feltner R
COL
FF25%95 mph8% whiff
SL25%89 mph26% whiff
CH16%86 mph49% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
89°F15 mph wind
HR: 1.151 Total: 1.076
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.06ERA
4.43FIP
8.10K/9
4.84BB/9
1.41WHIP
COL
5.45ERA
4.65FIP
8.19K/9
4.48BB/9
1.58WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-27.5% EV
-118
F5_ML AWAY
-11.7% EV
-167
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-10.0% EV
-102
ML AWAY
-8.1% EV
-154
TOTAL OVER 11.5
-5.1% EV
-105
F5_ML HOME
+4.0% EV
+132
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
3.3 runs
47.5% win
COL F5
3.0 runs
41.0% win
F5 Total
6.3
NRFI
45.7%
YRFI
54.3%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.30
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.5
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
85%
No HR
3%
Casey Schmitt SF30.0%
ISO: 0.254 | Barrel: 13.5% | vs Ryan Feltner | Park: 1.18x
Bryce Eldridge SF30.0%
ISO: 0.223 | Barrel: 11.6% | vs Ryan Feltner | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Rafael Devers SF30.0%
ISO: 0.212 | Barrel: 8.9% | vs Ryan Feltner | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Logan Webb
0.0 K projected
SF | K/9: 0.0
Ryan Feltner
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Keaton Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Jason Foley RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Brenton Doyle CF10-DAY-IL
Blas Castano RP15-DAY-IL
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
McCade Brown SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SF 53.6%
-27.5 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-27.5 pts
Total
11.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →