STL vs SF prediction for September 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 3.9 - STL 4.1. SF is favored with a 50.3% win probability. SF wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 8.0 total runs.
SF
3.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
STL
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFSTL
-1.5
Run Line (SF)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.0% (3,814 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
STL
246
SF
246
Projected
SF 3.9 — STL 4.1
Actual
SF 2 — STL 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Quinn Mathews L
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF43%94 mph17% whiff
SL23%85 mph30% whiff
CH17%83 mph39% whiff
Landen Roupp R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI34%93 mph7% whiff
CU26%77 mph33% whiff
CH21%87 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
75°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.078 Total: 1.044
11mph out
Bullpen Comparison
STL
4.44ERA
4.25FIP
8.16K/9
4.07BB/9
1.34WHIP
SF
4.79ERA
4.57FIP
7.25K/9
4.39BB/9
1.51WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
STL F5
2.1 runs
39.0% win
SF F5
2.3 runs
43.8% win
F5 Total
4.4
NRFI
54.5%
YRFI
45.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.96
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
STL7 injured
Peter Strzelecki RP15-DAY-IL
JJ Wetherholt 2B10-DAY-IL
Masyn Winn SS10-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
+1 more
SF8 injured
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
JT Brubaker RP15-DAY-IL
Jesus Rodriguez C60-DAY-IL
Keaton Winn RP60-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto LF10-DAY-IL
Adrian Houser SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.