Who is predicted to win TB vs HOU on July 3, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, TB is favored with a 51.7% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is HOU 4.0 - TB 4.5.

How did TB vs HOU on July 3, 2026 end?

Final score: HOU 1 - TB 3. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

TB vs HOU Prediction & Picks — July 3, 2026

TB vs HOU prediction for July 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects HOU 4.0 - TB 4.5. TB is favored with a 51.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 8.4 total runs.

HOU

4.0

Projected Score

VS O/U 9.0

4.5

Projected Score

Win Probability

48.3%

51.7%

HOUTB

+1.5

Run Line (HOU)

9.0

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.5% (2,758 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

346

HOU

246

Projected

HOU 4.0 — TB 4.5

Actual

HOU 1 — TB 3

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Nick Martinez R

SI30%92 mph7% whiff

CH28%78 mph32% whiff

FC20%89 mph14% whiff

Spencer Arrighetti R

HOU

CU34%77 mph37% whiff

FF29%92 mph19% whiff

ST13%79 mph24% whiff

Weather Impact

Minute Maid Park

89°F8 mph windRoof: retractable

HR: 1.050 Total: 1.026

thin air

Bullpen Comparison

4.35ERA

4.16FIP

8.55K/9

3.50BB/9

1.33WHIP

HOU

4.13ERA

4.29FIP

8.50K/9

4.68BB/9

1.32WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE HOME +1.5

-36.0% EV

-182

TOTAL OVER 9.0

-18.7% EV

-106

F5_ML HOME

-14.7% EV

-110

TOTAL UNDER 9.0

+9.2% EV

-114

ML HOME

-5.5% EV

-108

F5_ML AWAY

+4.0% EV

-114

First 5 Innings & NRFI

TB F5

2.6 runs

48.9% win

HOU F5

2.0 runs

36.9% win

F5 Total

4.6

NRFI

52.6%

YRFI

47.4%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

1.05

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

2.6

Over 0.5 HR

92%

Over 1.5 HR

72%

No HR

Yordan Alvarez HOU30.0%

ISO: 0.323 | Barrel: 18.7% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 0.99x Platoon: 1.12x

Christian Walker HOU28.1%

ISO: 0.255 | Barrel: 14.4% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 0.99x

Isaac Paredes HOU19.7%

ISO: 0.208 | Barrel: 8.8% | vs Nick Martinez | Park: 0.99x

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Nick Martinez

0.0 K projected

TB | K/9: 0.0

Spencer Arrighetti

0.0 K projected

HOU | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

TB8 injured

Jesse Scholtens RP15-DAY-IL

Jake Fraley RF10-DAY-IL

Steven Matz SP15-DAY-IL

Edwin Uceta RP60-DAY-IL

Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL

Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL

+2 more

HOU8 injured

Bennett Sousa RP60-DAY-IL

Braden Shewmake SS10-DAY-IL

Lance McCullers Jr. SP15-DAY-IL

Ronel Blanco SP60-DAY-IL

Raynel Delgado 2BDAY-TO-DAY

Kai-Wei Teng RP15-DAY-IL

+2 more

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

TB 51.7%

-36.0 pts

Run Line

+1.5

-36.0 pts

Total

9.0

+9.2 pts

How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

TB vs HOU Prediction