TB vs OAK prediction for August 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects OAK 4.3 - TB 6.1. TB is favored with a 59.2% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.3 total runs.
OAK
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
TB
6.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
OAKTB
+1.5
Run Line (OAK)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.8% (3,172 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
468
OAK
246
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Drew Rasmussen R
TB
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC30%90 mph24% whiff
FF29%96 mph25% whiff
SI23%95 mph12% whiff
Jack Perkins R
OAK
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%96 mph15% whiff
ST28%86 mph34% whiff
CH19%90 mph42% whiff
Weather Impact
Sutter Health Park
84°F8 mph wind
HR: 1.044 Total: 1.023
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.81ERA
3.97FIP
8.92K/9
2.84BB/9
1.17WHIP
OAK
5.23ERA
4.37FIP
9.84K/9
4.36BB/9
1.53WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
3.4 runs
53.3% win
OAK F5
2.3 runs
33.4% win
F5 Total
5.7
NRFI
52.0%
YRFI
48.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.08
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Griffin Jax SP15-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
OAK8 injured
Justin Sterner RP15-DAY-IL
Nick Kurtz 1B10-DAY-IL
Jeffrey Springs SP15-DAY-IL
Mark Leiter Jr. RP60-DAY-IL
Shea Langeliers C10-DAY-IL
Luis Severino SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.