MIL vs SD prediction for August 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 2.9 - MIL 4.0. MIL is favored with a 57.4% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
SD
2.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIL
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDMIL
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.4% (3,172 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
246
SD
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Dustin May R
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%97 mph18% whiff
FC23%93 mph19% whiff
ST19%86 mph30% whiff
Robbie Ray L
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%93 mph19% whiff
SL25%86 mph31% whiff
CH17%86 mph23% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
78°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.010 Total: 1.004
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.45ERA
3.60FIP
9.16K/9
3.70BB/9
1.27WHIP
SD
3.20ERA
3.69FIP
9.57K/9
3.67BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.2 runs
48.0% win
SD F5
1.6 runs
33.0% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
61.4%
YRFI
38.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.77
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Cooper Pratt SS10-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Sal Frelick RF10-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Nick Pivetta SP60-DAY-IL
Lucas Giolito SP15-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.