COL vs ARI prediction for August 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects ARI 5.3 - COL 5.5. ARI is favored with a 50.2% win probability. ARI wins more simulations despite the lower average score. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.0. Model projects 10.9 total runs.
ARI
5.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.0
COL
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
ARICOL
-1.5
Run Line (ARI)
9.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.5% (3,172 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
COL
467
ARI
357
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Ryan Feltner R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%95 mph11% whiff
SL24%89 mph27% whiff
CH16%85 mph43% whiff
Merrill Kelly R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH27%88 mph30% whiff
FF27%92 mph12% whiff
FC14%91 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
Chase Field
93°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.074 Total: 1.038
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
COL
4.92ERA
4.26FIP
7.64K/9
3.83BB/9
1.49WHIP
ARI
3.85ERA
3.91FIP
7.93K/9
3.00BB/9
1.20WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
COL F5
3.4 runs
46.5% win
ARI F5
3.2 runs
41.6% win
F5 Total
6.6
NRFI
47.5%
YRFI
52.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.26
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
COL8 injured
Jeff Criswell RP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Freeman RF10-DAY-IL
Jaden Hill RP15-DAY-IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
ARI8 injured
Zac Gallen SP60-DAY-IL
Corbin Burnes SP60-DAY-IL
Geraldo Perdomo SSDAY-TO-DAY
Justin Martinez RP60-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP60-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.