HOU vs SF prediction for August 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SF 2.6 - HOU 4.0. HOU is favored with a 60.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 6.6 total runs.
SF
2.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
HOU
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
SFHOU
+1.5
Run Line (SF)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.0% (3,172 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
HOU
246
SF
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Bryan King L
HOU
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF58%92 mph16% whiff
ST28%81 mph18% whiff
SI12%92 mph11% whiff
Adrian Houser R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI47%95 mph8% whiff
FF18%96 mph17% whiff
CH16%85 mph33% whiff
Weather Impact
Oracle Park
69°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.058 Total: 1.033
8mph out
Bullpen Comparison
HOU
3.40ERA
4.05FIP
9.29K/9
3.57BB/9
1.18WHIP
SF
4.69ERA
4.73FIP
7.16K/9
4.63BB/9
1.49WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
HOU F5
2.0 runs
48.2% win
SF F5
1.4 runs
31.1% win
F5 Total
3.3
NRFI
65.3%
YRFI
34.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.65
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
HOU5 injured
Jose Altuve 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Carlos Correa SS60-DAY-IL
Mike Burrows SP15-DAY-IL
Brice Matthews CF10-DAY-IL
Brandon Walter SP60-DAY-IL
SF8 injured
Joel Peguero RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Gage RP60-DAY-IL
Daniel Susac C10-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
Matt Chapman 3B10-DAY-IL
Harrison Bader CF10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
More Projections Today
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.