FINAL: LAA 7 — TEX 0. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected LAA 2.8 - TEX 3.3 (TEX at 54.2% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.1 total runs.
LAA
2.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TEX
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
LAATEX
+1.5
Run Line (LAA)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TEX L4LAA
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (3,260 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
135
LAA
135
Projected
LAA 2.8 — TEX 3.3
Actual
LAA 7 — TEX 0
Pick Results
TEX @ LAA NRFInrfiWIN+0.83u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Jacob deGrom R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%97 mph23% whiff
SL36%91 mph37% whiff
CH12%90 mph42% whiff
Walbert Ureña R
LAA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
CH32%91 mph36% whiff
SI31%98 mph17% whiff
FF22%98 mph18% whiff
Weather Impact
Angel Stadium
72°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.059 Total: 1.033
7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
4.13ERA
4.33FIP
8.28K/9
3.79BB/9
1.34WHIP
LAA
3.98ERA
4.20FIP
9.37K/9
4.01BB/9
1.31WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-18.4% EV
+100
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.8% EV
+114
F5 UNDER 3.5
+8.9% EV
+102
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+7.8% EV
-122
F5_ML AWAY
-6.3% EV
-156
ML AWAY
-4.1% EV
-143
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
1.9 runs
44.2% win
LAA F5
1.5 runs
33.9% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
64.6%
YRFI
35.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.68
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.8
Over 0.5 HR
83%
Over 1.5 HR
52%
No HR
17%
Joc Pederson TEX29.9%
ISO: 0.255 | Barrel: 14.9% | vs Walbert Ureña | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Corey Seager TEX29.6%
ISO: 0.221 | Barrel: 11.1% | vs Walbert Ureña | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Mike Trout LAA29.3%
ISO: 0.212 | Barrel: 11.9% | vs Jacob deGrom | Park: 0.98x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Jacob deGrom
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Walbert Ureña
0.0 K projected
LAA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Jakob Junis RP15-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Nathan Eovaldi SP15-DAY-IL
Danny Jansen C60-DAY-IL
Jose Corniell RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAA8 injured
Oswald Peraza 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Sam Bachman RP15-DAY-IL
Sebastian Rivero C10-DAY-IL
Shaun Anderson RP15-DAY-IL
Yusei Kikuchi SP60-DAY-IL
Yoan Moncada 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Scheduled game (02:07 UTC) - the moneyline edge is modest and within normal variance, but the NRFI (6.6% edge, historically well-supported) and F5 under (9.9% edge) markets show real value from Jacob deGrom's elite strikeout profile combined with cold 72.3F weather suppressing early scoring.
Key Factors
- NRFI edge is the standout play: 6.6% edge, 63.5% model probability, sits historically well-supported
- F5 under 3.5 shows 9.9% edge (51.9% model prob) - deGrom's 29.4% K-rate combined with Ureña's contact-oriented approach supports early-inning run suppression
- deGrom K-rate (29.4%) is elite-tier, but his 4.18 ERA (B+ stuff/B command) shows some volatility - BB rate 5.5% is strong control despite occasional damage allowed
- Cold weather (72.3F, no wind data extreme) trends toward suppressing offense by an estimated 0.5 runs versus the 7.5 market total
- Total edge (5.9%) exists but full total market is currently DISABLED in calibration due to 0/3 qualifier windows - do not bet full game total directly, use NRFI/F5 as proxies
Risk Factors
- Total/under market disabled in current regime (0/3 positive qualifier windows) - treat total edge as directional context only, not a standalone bet
- Ureña's high walk rate (12.6% BB) could produce base-runners/runs even against a suppressed-scoring backdrop, undermining the NRFI thesis somewhat
- Late-night scheduled game (02:07 UTC) may have thinner liquidity and less sharp pregame price discovery
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
TEX 54.2%
+0.1 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+0.1 pts
Total
7.5
+7.8 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.