MIL vs LAD prediction for August 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects LAD 3.6 - MIL 4.3. MIL is favored with a 54.4% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 7.9 total runs.
LAD
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
MIL
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
LADMIL
-1.5
Run Line (LAD)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (3,260 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
MIL
246
LAD
246
Projected
LAD 3.6 — MIL 4.3
Actual
LAD 4 — MIL 5
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Shane Drohan L
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF29%95 mph26% whiff
SI20%95 mph10% whiff
SL20%86 mph38% whiff
Roki Sasaki R
LAD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF42%98 mph16% whiff
FS27%90 mph34% whiff
SL21%87 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Dodger Stadium
71°F7 mph wind
HR: 1.061 Total: 1.033
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
MIL
3.43ERA
3.60FIP
9.11K/9
3.69BB/9
1.27WHIP
LAD
4.02ERA
4.03FIP
9.98K/9
4.27BB/9
1.28WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
MIL F5
2.5 runs
46.7% win
LAD F5
2.1 runs
36.5% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
55.4%
YRFI
44.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
MIL8 injured
Brice Turang 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Cooper Pratt SS10-DAY-IL
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Sal Frelick RF10-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
LAD8 injured
Gavin Stone SP60-DAY-IL
Tyler Glasnow SP60-DAY-IL
Blake Treinen RP60-DAY-IL
Will Smith C60-DAY-IL
Kris Bubic SP60-DAY-IL
Will Klein RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Scheduled game (02:10 UTC) - model's 54.4% away (MIL) projection against market's -136 LAD (57.8% implied) produces an 8.1% ML edge sitting in the historically profitable 5-10% edge bracket (a supportive track record), supported by a real pitcher-quality edge favoring the away side.
Key Factors
- Pitcher ERA edge favors MIL: Drohan 4.18 ERA (B overall) vs Sasaki 4.9 ERA (B- overall) = 0.72pp advantage to the away side, an underappreciated mismatch given LAD's short line
- ML edge of 8.1% sits in the 5-10% bracket showing 58.8% historical WR, well above breakeven and safely below the high-edge overconfidence historical support
- F5_ML away confirms early-game edge at 7.4%, reinforcing that MIL's advantage may show up early rather than late
- Park factor 0.92 at Dodger Stadium suppresses run scoring, supporting the modest total under lean (3.2% edge) as a complementary consideration
- Broader combo historical support for away ML (a supportive track record, RED tag) suggests some caution is still warranted despite the specific 5-10% bucket showing better results - treat as a moderate, not high-conviction, lean
Risk Factors
- Combo historical support MLB | ml | any | away shows RED tag at a supportive track record - broader away ML history is below breakeven, creating some tension with the specific edge-bucket data
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) remains a dangerous middle-of-order bat (30% HR probability) capable of erasing a modest pitcher-quality edge in a single swing
- Late-night scheduled game (02:10 UTC) may see thinner liquidity and less sharp price discovery before first pitch
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.