FINAL: TOR 0 — BOS 7. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected TOR 2.8 - BOS 3.5 (BOS at 54.0% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.3 total runs.
TOR
2.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
BOS
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
TORBOS
+1.5
Run Line (TOR)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (3,260 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
BOS
245
TOR
135
Projected
TOR 2.8 — BOS 3.5
Actual
TOR 0 — BOS 7
Pick Results
BOS @ TOR NRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Payton Tolle L
BOS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%96 mph25% whiff
SI22%95 mph12% whiff
FC19%88 mph30% whiff
Max Scherzer R
TOR
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%93 mph12% whiff
SL23%86 mph20% whiff
CH16%84 mph17% whiff
Weather Impact
Rogers Centre
79°F5 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.049 Total: 1.026
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
BOS
3.43ERA
3.53FIP
9.68K/9
3.11BB/9
1.24WHIP
TOR
3.61ERA
4.18FIP
8.08K/9
3.81BB/9
1.29WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-18.1% EV
-118
F5 UNDER 4.5
+13.1% EV
-130
F5_ML HOME
-10.2% EV
+130
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+9.3% EV
-104
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.1% EV
+116
NRFI NRFI
+7.0% EV
-125
First 5 Innings & NRFI
BOS F5
2.0 runs
48.9% win
TOR F5
1.4 runs
30.1% win
F5 Total
3.4
NRFI
64.4%
YRFI
35.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.68
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
56%
No HR
16%
Willson Contreras BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.239 | Barrel: 14.3% | vs Max Scherzer | Park: 1.01x
Wilyer Abreu BOS30.0%
ISO: 0.212 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Max Scherzer | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Kazuma Okamoto TOR25.8%
ISO: 0.176 | Barrel: 11.8% | vs Payton Tolle | Park: 1.01x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Payton Tolle
0.0 K projected
BOS | K/9: 0.0
Max Scherzer
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
BOS8 injured
Garrett Whitlock RP15-DAY-IL
Roman Anthony LF60-DAY-IL
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2B60-DAY-IL
Triston Casas 1B60-DAY-IL
Trevor Story SS60-DAY-IL
Garrett Crochet SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
TOR8 injured
Brendon Little RPPATERNITY
Jake Bloss SP60-DAY-IL
Lenyn Sosa 2B60-DAY-IL
Trey Yesavage SP15-DAY-IL
Jameson Taillon SP15-DAY-IL
Luis Urias 2B10-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
SEVERE DIRECTIONAL FAILURE - Game is FINAL (BOS 7, TOR 0). Model favored TOR at 46% win probability but Boston completely shut them out; however, the UNDER edges (13.1% F5 under, 9.3% total under) both correctly hit, showing the model's totals logic outperformed its moneyline logic today.
Key Factors
- Scherzer's 7.83 ERA (D stuff grade) was a massive red flag that should have driven a stronger TOR fade - model's 46% TOR projection was too generous given this pitcher quality gap
- Tolle's 3.46 ERA and 28.4% K-rate (B/B+ grades) represented a legitimately elite recent form the model underweighted
- Both under signals were correct: F5 under 4.5 (13.1% edge, 63.9% model prob) and total under 7.5 (9.3% edge, 55.8% model prob) both hit as TOR scored zero runs
- The magnitude of the shutout (7-0) far exceeded what either team's underlying metrics suggested was likely
Risk Factors
- Game is final; no forward value
- This result reinforces that when a starter has an ERA above 6.0-7.0 (like Scherzer's 7.83), the model should apply much larger downward adjustments to that team's win probability
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
BOS 54.0%
-1.0 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-1.0 pts
Total
7.5
+9.3 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.