PHI vs MIN prediction for August 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIN 4.8 - PHI 4.4. MIN is favored with a 52.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
MIN
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
PHI
4.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
MINPHI
+1.5
Run Line (MIN)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (3,260 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PHI
246
MIN
357
Projected
MIN 4.8 — PHI 4.4
Actual
MIN 1 — PHI 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Aaron Nola R
PHI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
KC32%78 mph40% whiff
FF24%92 mph11% whiff
SI19%92 mph10% whiff
Taj Bradley R
MIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF47%97 mph13% whiff
FC24%90 mph34% whiff
FS20%92 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
Target Field
85°F3 mph wind
HR: 1.034 Total: 1.016
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
PHI
4.42ERA
3.82FIP
10.37K/9
3.59BB/9
1.35WHIP
MIN
4.06ERA
3.85FIP
9.26K/9
3.95BB/9
1.37WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PHI F5
2.4 runs
37.1% win
MIN F5
2.9 runs
48.0% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
49.4%
YRFI
50.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.10
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PHI6 injured
Rafael Marchan C10-DAY-IL
Caleb Kilian RP15-DAY-IL
Brad Keller RP60-DAY-IL
Tanner Banks RP60-DAY-IL
Johan Rojas CF60-DAY-IL
Adolis Garcia RF60-DAY-IL
MIN7 injured
Joe Ryan SP15-DAY-IL
Mike Paredes SP60-DAY-IL
Cole Sands RP60-DAY-IL
David Festa SP60-DAY-IL
Mick Abel SP60-DAY-IL
Anthony Banda RP15-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Game IN PROGRESS (0-0 per live scoreboard). Model's 52.9% home projection carries only a 0.4% ML edge against a near-pickems market (-104/-103) - no actionable signal exists, and the game should be monitored rather than acted upon.
Key Factors
- Model-market gap trivial: 52.9% vs 51.0% implied = 1.9pp edge, statistically insignificant
- Pitcher ERA edge to home: Bradley 4.06 vs Nola 5.91 = 1.85pp advantage, but both are below-average starters (B-/B- overall grades)
- Market pricing near pickems (-104/-103) confirms no clear signal exists on either side
- Weather and park factor (1.0, neutral) offer no exploitable environmental edge
Risk Factors
- Game is in progress; any pregame edge assessment is now stale
- Even the small home edge is within normal variance and shouldn't be actioned
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.