CHC vs WSH prediction for August 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects WSH 4.8 - CHC 6.2. CHC is favored with a 57.8% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 11.0 total runs.
WSH
4.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CHC
6.2
Projected Score
Win Probability
WSHCHC
+1.5
Run Line (WSH)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 63.5% (3,260 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CHC
468
WSH
357
Projected
WSH 4.8 — CHC 6.2
Actual
WSH 7 — CHC 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kevin Gausman R
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF51%94 mph13% whiff
FS39%84 mph38% whiff
SL10%84 mph34% whiff
Cade Cavalli R
WSH
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%97 mph18% whiff
KC27%86 mph38% whiff
SI14%96 mph11% whiff
Weather Impact
Nationals Park
93°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.070 Total: 1.037
thin air, 6mph out
Bullpen Comparison
CHC
4.05ERA
4.58FIP
8.98K/9
3.95BB/9
1.32WHIP
WSH
5.39ERA
5.17FIP
8.76K/9
4.60BB/9
1.52WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CHC F5
3.0 runs
47.0% win
WSH F5
2.6 runs
39.2% win
F5 Total
5.6
NRFI
54.9%
YRFI
45.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.98
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CHC8 injured
Edward Cabrera SP15-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP15-DAY-IL
Shelby Miller RP60-DAY-IL
Riley Martin RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Shaw RF10-DAY-IL
Hunter Harvey RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
WSH8 injured
James Wood RF10-DAY-IL
Richard Lovelady RP60-DAY-IL
Josiah Gray SP60-DAY-IL
Connelly Early SP15-DAY-IL
DJ Herz SP60-DAY-IL
PJ Poulin RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Game is FINAL (WSH 7, CHC 0). Model favored away CHC at 57.8% win probability despite Washington's Cavalli having a clearly better ERA (3.86) than Chicago's Gausman (4.63) - this was an attribution error the market correctly avoided by favoring WSH at -144.
Key Factors
- Pitcher ERA gap favored home not away: Cavalli 3.86 (home) vs Gausman 4.63 (away) = 0.77pp advantage to WSH, yet model favored CHC by 57.8% - a clear attribution mismatch
- Model's total projection (10.97 runs) was 2.47 runs over the market total (8.5) and both were wrong - actual was exactly 7
- Hot weather (92.9F, 6mph wind out, HR mult 1.07) suggested scoring inflation that Cavalli's dominant stuff completely neutralized
- Market's -144 WSH pricing (59.2% implied) was the correct call over model's away lean
Risk Factors
- Game is final; no forward value
- This game should be flagged for review of how the model attributes win probability when facing a clear starter ERA mismatch that favors the opposite side of its pick
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.