CLE vs DET prediction for August 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects DET 4.1 - CLE 4.1. DET is favored with a 51.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.2 total runs.
DET
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
CLE
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
DETCLE
+1.5
Run Line (DET)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.8% (3,260 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CLE
246
DET
246
Projected
DET 4.1 — CLE 4.1
Actual
DET 3 — CLE 0
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Parker Messick L
CLE
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF38%94 mph23% whiff
CH24%86 mph34% whiff
SI16%93 mph8% whiff
Keider Montero R
DET
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF30%94 mph12% whiff
SI23%95 mph7% whiff
SL19%86 mph26% whiff
Weather Impact
Comerica Park
83°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.031 Total: 1.015
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CLE
3.67ERA
3.94FIP
9.92K/9
4.00BB/9
1.28WHIP
DET
4.35ERA
4.55FIP
8.39K/9
4.41BB/9
1.38WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CLE F5
2.0 runs
40.3% win
DET F5
2.0 runs
40.6% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
63.4%
YRFI
36.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.74
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CLE2 injured
Slade Cecconi SP15-DAY-IL
Shawn Armstrong RP60-DAY-IL
DET8 injured
Riley Greene LF10-DAY-IL
Wenceel Perez RF60-DAY-IL
Will Vest RP60-DAY-IL
Kerry Carpenter RF10-DAY-IL
Brant Hurter RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Verlander SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Game is FINAL (DET 3, CLE 0). Model's 51.5% home projection with negligible 0.1% ML edge was appropriately thin; result confirms pickems-level uncertainty was the right read, but no forward action possible.
Key Factors
- Model 51.5% vs market implied 50.0% = only 1.5pp edge, statistically insignificant
- Pitcher ERA comp: Messick 2.78 (away) vs Montero 3.65 (home) modestly favored DET's opponent, yet DET won - shows margin unpredictability
- Weather 83F with 6.4mph wind produced only 1.5% total edge - neutral park factor (1.0) at Comerica
- Final 3-0 shutout margin exceeded the tight pregame model projection
Risk Factors
- Game is final; no live betting value remains
- Edge of 0.1% was within noise from the start - should never have been actioned
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.