CIN vs CWS prediction for August 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects CWS 3.6 - CIN 4.1. CIN is favored with a 52.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 7.7 total runs.
CWS
3.6
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
CIN
4.1
Projected Score
Win Probability
CWSCIN
-1.5
Run Line (CWS)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 53.6% (3,260 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
CIN
246
CWS
246
Projected
CWS 3.6 — CIN 4.1
Actual
CWS 8 — CIN 9
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Andrew Abbott L
CIN
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF45%92 mph10% whiff
ST20%82 mph27% whiff
CH18%86 mph38% whiff
Davis Martin R
CWS
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF26%94 mph20% whiff
SI18%93 mph7% whiff
CU14%82 mph38% whiff
Weather Impact
Rate Field
76°F4 mph wind
HR: 1.037 Total: 1.018
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
CIN
4.34ERA
4.90FIP
8.68K/9
4.75BB/9
1.39WHIP
CWS
3.81ERA
4.19FIP
9.08K/9
4.66BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
CIN F5
2.2 runs
44.1% win
CWS F5
1.9 runs
37.6% win
F5 Total
4.1
NRFI
56.2%
YRFI
43.8%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.87
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
CIN6 injured
Brandon Williamson SP60-DAY-IL
Hunter Greene SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Steer 1B10-DAY-IL
Blake Dunn CF60-DAY-IL
Tony Santillan RP15-DAY-IL
Graham Ashcraft RP60-DAY-IL
CWSHealthy
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
Game is FINAL (CIN 9, CWS 8). Model's 52.5% away projection (3.9% edge) proved reasonable in a one-run thriller; neither model nor market had a clear directional advantage, consistent with two similarly modest starters.
Key Factors
- Model-market gap was modest: 52.5% vs 55.9% implied = only 3.4pp, well within normal variance
- Pitcher ERA comparison nearly even: Martin 4.50 vs Abbott 4.23, a 0.27pp gap - no clear mismatch
- One-run final score (9-8) is fully consistent with a competitive, coin-flip-caliber matchup
- F5 under edge (6.1%) was a secondary signal not strongly validated by the high-scoring final (17 combined runs)
Risk Factors
- Game is final; no forward value remains
- Total scoring (17 runs) actually exceeded market total of 8.5, meaning the F5/total under leans would have lost
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.