FINAL: NYY 0 — SEA 1. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected NYY 4.9 - SEA 2.3 (NYY at 72.2% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 7.2 total runs.
NYY
4.9
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
SEA
2.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
NYYSEA
-1.5
Run Line (NYY)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 72.6% (3,260 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SEA
024
NYY
357
Projected
NYY 4.9 — SEA 2.3
Actual
NYY 0 — SEA 1
Pick Results
SEA @ NYY NRFInrfiWIN+0.84u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Logan Gilbert R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF39%96 mph20% whiff
SL25%87 mph34% whiff
FS14%82 mph38% whiff
Max Fried L
NYY
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FC23%92 mph26% whiff
SI21%93 mph16% whiff
FF18%95 mph19% whiff
Weather Impact
Yankee Stadium
84°F9 mph wind
HR: 1.071 Total: 1.038
thin air, 7mph out
Bullpen Comparison
SEA
3.57ERA
3.90FIP
8.96K/9
3.43BB/9
1.30WHIP
NYY
2.82ERA
3.84FIP
8.59K/9
3.52BB/9
1.18WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-37.2% EV
+130
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-17.8% EV
-156
F5_ML HOME
+17.1% EV
-164
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+14.8% EV
+130
ML AWAY
-14.3% EV
+144
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-10.9% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SEA F5
1.0 runs
16.5% win
NYY F5
2.9 runs
66.6% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
60.5%
YRFI
39.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.80
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
55%
No HR
15%
Ben Rice NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.314 | Barrel: 16.4% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Luis García Jr. NYY30.0%
ISO: 0.121 | Barrel: 12.1% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Trent Grisham NYY28.6%
ISO: 0.206 | Barrel: 9.8% | vs Logan Gilbert | Park: 1.10x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Logan Gilbert
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Max Fried
0.0 K projected
NYY | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SEA8 injured
Taylor Ward LFDAY-TO-DAY
Cole Young 2BDAY-TO-DAY
Gabe Speier RPDAY-TO-DAY
Matt Brash RP15-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
+2 more
NYY6 injured
Cody Bellinger LF10-DAY-IL
Kervin Castro RP15-DAY-IL
Carlos Rodon SP15-DAY-IL
Giancarlo Stanton DH10-DAY-IL
Clarke Schmidt SP60-DAY-IL
Aaron Judge RF60-DAY-IL
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -2
CRITICAL MODEL FAILURE - Game is FINAL (SEA 1, NYY 0). Model's largest edges of the day (F5_ML 17.1%, runline 14.8%, ML 6.4%) on NYY all failed completely as Seattle shut out the Yankees on the road. This is the textbook case proving high edges are anti-correlated with accuracy.
Key Factors
- Model vs market gap: 72.2% vs 61.0% implied = 11.2pp disagreement, a red flag per calibration rules (large gaps should trigger skepticism, not confidence)
- Historical base rate: 60-65% probability bucket has only a supportive track record in recent performance data - this game's 64.9% prob pick fits that failing bucket
- Three key NYY bats on IL (Judge, Stanton, Bellinger) represent a lineup quality erosion the model underweighted relative to Fried's 3.11 ERA advantage over Gilbert's 3.69
- F5_ML edge of 17.1% and runline edge of 14.8% were both well above the 9% max_edge_cap threshold that calibration data recommends - should have been capped/flagged pregame
- Yankee Stadium park factor (1.1) and 7.2mph wind out suggested run environment inflation that never materialized
Risk Factors
- This result should trigger immediate recalibration discussion for edge caps above 10%
- Market's skepticism (-156 needing 61% vs model's 72%) was the correct signal to follow
- Lesson for future games: any single-market edge exceeding 12-15% should be treated as a data/model warning flag, not a betting opportunity
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
NYY 72.2%
+14.8 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+14.8 pts
Total
7.5
+2.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.