PIT vs MIA prediction for August 13, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects MIA 3.2 - PIT 3.7. PIT is favored with a 53.7% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
MIA
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
PIT
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
MIAPIT
+1.5
Run Line (MIA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 55.7% (3,260 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
PIT
246
MIA
135
Projected
MIA 3.2 — PIT 3.7
Actual
MIA 1 — PIT 13
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Braxton Ashcraft R
PIT
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF32%97 mph14% whiff
CU26%85 mph39% whiff
SL23%92 mph29% whiff
Tyler Phillips R
MIA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI26%96 mph4% whiff
ST24%84 mph31% whiff
FS24%87 mph32% whiff
Weather Impact
loanDepot park
88°F6 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.005 Total: 1.000
thin air, 6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
PIT
3.46ERA
3.67FIP
9.88K/9
4.18BB/9
1.25WHIP
MIA
4.06ERA
3.89FIP
9.70K/9
4.12BB/9
1.25WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
PIT F5
2.0 runs
43.3% win
MIA F5
1.7 runs
36.9% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
62.6%
YRFI
37.4%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.72
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
PIT5 injured
Endy Rodriguez CDAY-TO-DAY
Konnor Griffin SS60-DAY-IL
Oneil Cruz CF60-DAY-IL
Mitch Keller SP60-DAY-IL
Ryan O'Hearn RF10-DAY-IL
MIA8 injured
Anthony Bender RP15-DAY-IL
Max Meyer SP15-DAY-IL
William Kempner RP15-DAY-IL
Kyle Stowers 1B10-DAY-IL
Andrew Nardi RP60-DAY-IL
Robby Snelling SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL -1
Game is FINAL (PIT 13, MIA 1). Model's 53.7% away projection (2.1% edge) was directionally correct but the blowout margin (12 runs) was far beyond what the tight edge implied - under edge (10.1%) was the real signal.
Key Factors
- ML edge was thin: model 53.8% vs market implied 54.9% = -1.1pp, essentially efficient market pricing
- Total under edge was strongest signal: 10.1% edge, model 57.6% prob on under 8.0 - correctly directional even if final was a blowout not a pitchers' duel
- Pitcher ERA gap: Phillips 3.75 (home) vs Ashcraft 4.41 (away) - minor mismatch, insufficient to explain 12-run margin
- Result (13-1) suggests one-sided offensive execution beyond what either pitcher metric predicted
Risk Factors
- Game is final; no forward value
- ML edge (2.1%) was too small to have warranted action pregame
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.