FINAL: SEA 2 — TB 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected SEA 3.8 - TB 3.3 (SEA at 53.9% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.0. Model projects 7.0 total runs.
SEA
3.8
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.0
TB
3.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEATB
+1.5
Run Line (SEA)
7.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TB W5SEA
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.7% (3,212 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TB
135
SEA
246
Projected
SEA 3.8 — TB 3.3
Actual
SEA 2 — TB 3
Pick Results
SEA F5 MLf5_mlPUSH+0.00u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
R TBD
TB
Emerson Hancock R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF39%95 mph20% whiff
SI23%95 mph10% whiff
ST16%77 mph34% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
79°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.994 Total: 0.995
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TB
3.51ERA
3.91FIP
9.08K/9
2.90BB/9
1.11WHIP
SEA
3.35ERA
3.90FIP
8.98K/9
3.37BB/9
1.27WHIP
Betting Edges
F5_ML AWAY
-14.7% EV
-104
TOTAL OVER 7.0
-11.7% EV
-108
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-9.8% EV
+184
F5_ML HOME
+3.4% EV
-120
ML AWAY
-3.4% EV
+106
TOTAL UNDER 7.0
+2.5% EV
-112
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TB F5
1.7 runs
33.9% win
SEA F5
2.2 runs
46.9% win
F5 Total
3.9
NRFI
63.0%
YRFI
37.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.73
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
56%
No HR
16%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
0.0 K projected
TB | K/9: 0.0
Emerson Hancock
0.0 K projected
SEA | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TB8 injured
Ben Williamson 2B10-DAY-IL
Jake Fraley RF60-DAY-IL
Shane McClanahan SP15-DAY-IL
Cole Sulser RP15-DAY-IL
Manuel Rodriguez RP60-DAY-IL
Gavin Lux LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL
Cole Wilcox RP15-DAY-IL
Luke Raley RF10-DAY-IL
J.P. Crawford SS10-DAY-IL
Cooper Criswell RP60-DAY-IL
Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL
+2 more
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SEA 53.9%
-1.8 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-1.8 pts
Total
7.0
+2.5 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.