FINAL: MIL 5 — TEX 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected MIL 4.3 - TEX 3.8 (MIL at 57.2% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.1 total runs.
MIL
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
TEX
3.8
Projected Score
Win Probability
MILTEX
-1.5
Run Line (MIL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
TEXMIL W4
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 62.7% (3,529 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
246
MIL
246
Projected
MIL 4.3 — TEX 3.8
Actual
MIL 5 — TEX 3
Pick Results
TEX @ MIL F5 UNDER 4.5f5WIN+0.42u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cal Quantrill R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI26%94 mph14% whiff
FS23%85 mph24% whiff
FC22%89 mph12% whiff
Shane Drohan L
MIL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF28%95 mph26% whiff
SL21%86 mph36% whiff
SI20%95 mph10% whiff
Weather Impact
American Family Field
77°F7 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 1.002 Total: 0.998
thin air, 7mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
4.32ERA
4.37FIP
8.57K/9
3.76BB/9
1.34WHIP
MIL
3.19ERA
3.50FIP
9.26K/9
3.62BB/9
1.22WHIP
Betting Edges
F5 OVER 4.5
-11.4% EV
-110
F5_ML HOME
-10.9% EV
-161
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
-5.9% EV
+122
ML HOME
-4.5% EV
-164
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-3.2% EV
-147
TOTAL UNDER 8.0
+2.9% EV
-105
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.2 runs
39.8% win
MIL F5
2.5 runs
44.5% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
55.5%
YRFI
44.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.93
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
84%
Over 1.5 HR
56%
No HR
16%
Corey Seager TEX28.7%
ISO: 0.155 | Barrel: 9.2% | vs Shane Drohan
Jake Bauers MIL27.8%
ISO: 0.217 | Barrel: 13.2% | vs Cal Quantrill | Platoon: 1.12x
Jackson Chourio MIL25.3%
ISO: 0.188 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Cal Quantrill
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Cal Quantrill
0.0 K projected
TEX | K/9: 0.0
Shane Drohan
0.0 K projected
MIL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Nathan Eovaldi SP15-DAY-IL
Robert Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Jose Corniell RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
MIL8 injured
Dustin May SPDAY-TO-DAY
JoJo Romero RP15-DAY-IL
Abner Uribe RP15-DAY-IL
Brandon Woodruff SP60-DAY-IL
Joel Kuhnel RP15-DAY-IL
Rob Zastryzny RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRAL
TEX @ MIL shows MIL home favorite (57.2%-59.3% model) with Cal Quantrill (3.13 ERA) pitching better than Shane Drohan (4.15 ERA), giving MIL the SP edge. Market fairly prices ~62% MIL implied. Edge -4.5% on home ML suggests market correct. historically mixed.
Key Factors
- Pitcher mismatch MIL: Quantrill 3.13 ERA (good command 0.06 BB/9) vs Drohan 4.15 ERA. MIL has the SP edge here.
- Bullpen: MIL 3.19 ERA (strong, 3rd best on slate) vs TEX 4.32 ERA (weak). Significant bullpen advantage MIL (+1.13 ERA), suggesting late-inning control for home team.
- Offensive edge: TEX has Seager (28.7% HR) vs MIL's Bauers (27.8% HR) and Chourio (25.3% HR). Fairly matched.
- Market pricing: -163 home implies 62.0%, model 59.3%. Market is slightly MORE confident in MIL than model. Model edge -4.5% suggests market correct or overconfident.
- Weather: 77.0°F, closed/retractable roof. Neutral conditions. HR mult 1.002, slight home boost but negligible.
Risk Factors
- MIL bullpen elite, but if Quantrill gets shelled early, bullpen can't overcome an early hole. Model may be underestimating Quantrill's skill given his solid ERA.
- TEX is trying to make a playoff push; motivation could swing a close game.
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
MIL 57.2%
-5.9 pts
Run Line
-1.5
-5.9 pts
Total
8.0
+2.9 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.