TEX vs SEA prediction for September 8, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 4.1 - TEX 4.3. TEX is favored with a 52.9% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.4 total runs.
SEA
4.1
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
TEX
4.3
Projected Score
Win Probability
SEATEX
-1.5
Run Line (SEA)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.9% (3,814 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TEX
246
SEA
246
Projected
SEA 4.1 — TEX 4.3
Actual
SEA 5 — TEX 10
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Cal Quantrill R
TEX
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI25%94 mph13% whiff
FF24%94 mph21% whiff
FS22%85 mph26% whiff
Bryce Miller R
SEA
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF39%96 mph16% whiff
FS25%85 mph28% whiff
SL10%88 mph28% whiff
Weather Impact
T-Mobile Park
69°F8 mph windRoof: retractable
HR: 0.981 Total: 0.988
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
TEX
4.27ERA
4.46FIP
8.42K/9
3.76BB/9
1.32WHIP
SEA
3.98ERA
4.13FIP
8.56K/9
3.33BB/9
1.32WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TEX F5
2.4 runs
43.5% win
SEA F5
2.3 runs
40.7% win
F5 Total
4.7
NRFI
52.5%
YRFI
47.5%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.00
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
TEX8 injured
Josh Jung 3B10-DAY-IL
Nathan Eovaldi SP15-DAY-IL
Jack Leiter SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Higashioka C10-DAY-IL
Cole Winn RP15-DAY-IL
Peyton Gray RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
SEA8 injured
Nick Davila RP60-DAY-IL
Matt Brash RP60-DAY-IL
Brendan Donovan 3B7-DAY IL
Brennen Davis CF60-DAY-IL
Colt Emerson SS60-DAY-IL
Emerson Hancock SP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.