TOR vs SD prediction for July 11, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.5 - TOR 3.4. SD is favored with a 51.5% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.9 total runs.
SD
3.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
TOR
3.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDTOR
+1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 52.7% (2,790 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
TOR
135
SD
245
Projected
SD 3.5 — TOR 3.4
Actual
SD 8 — TOR 7
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Kevin Gausman R
TOR
FF51%94 mph14% whiff
FS39%84 mph38% whiff
SL10%84 mph35% whiff
Germán Márquez R
SD
KC37%85 mph33% whiff
FF37%95 mph11% whiff
SI12%94 mph6% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
73°F5 mph wind
HR: 0.998 Total: 0.997
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
TOR
3.92ERA
3.64FIP
9.10K/9
3.46BB/9
1.29WHIP
SD
3.15ERA
3.66FIP
8.41K/9
3.44BB/9
1.23WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
-34.3% EV
-192
TOTAL OVER 7.5
-26.4% EV
-128
TOTAL UNDER 7.5
+19.6% EV
+104
RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5
-11.7% EV
+158
F5_ML HOME
-5.4% EV
-110
F5_ML AWAY
-5.2% EV
-114
First 5 Innings & NRFI
TOR F5
2.0 runs
41.9% win
SD F5
2.0 runs
41.1% win
F5 Total
4.0
NRFI
60.1%
YRFI
40.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.80
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
1.9
Over 0.5 HR
85%
Over 1.5 HR
57%
No HR
15%
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Kevin Gausman
0.0 K projected
TOR | K/9: 0.0
Germán Márquez
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
TOR8 injured
Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL
Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL
Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL
Jesus Sanchez RF10-DAY-IL
Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL
Anthony Santander RF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
SD8 injured
Randy Vasquez SP15-DAY-IL
David Morgan RP15-DAY-IL
Freddy Fermin C10-DAY-IL
Samad Taylor LF10-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP15-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
NEUTRALYELLOW ZONE50.1% WR (n=329)
UNDER 7.5 edge at +19.6% is notable but sits in YELLOW zone (50.1% WR); fundamental case strong (Petco Park -12% suppression, cool 72.8°F, -4.7 mph wind in), but high-edge trap pattern suggests market correctly skeptical; Kevin Gausman's elite command (8.9 K/9) supports under but not enough to overcome overconfidence signal.
Key Factors
- Petco Park suppression: -12% run baseline, 0.90 park factor — legitimately tough environment
- Cool weather: 72.8°F (cool for July), -4.7 mph wind in — adds ~0.75 run suppression
- Pitcher quality edge: Gausman (B-) > Márquez (C+, 5.9 K/9) — slight pitcher advantage
- UNDER edge high: +19.6% (model 58.6% vs market 38.9%) but in YELLOW zone (50.1% WR)
- Market skepticism: 7.5 appears fairly priced for these conditions; market respects Petco
Risk Factors
- High-edge underperformance: YELLOW zone on high edges historically weak (50.1% WR)
- Market efficiency: Petco lines are well-tracked; sharp money may have priced this correctly
- Gausman dominance uncertain: Pitch quality can vary; could be less dominant than recent form
PARK FACTORHIGH EDGE WARNING
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 51.5%
-34.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
-34.3 pts
Total
7.5
+19.6 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →