Who is predicted to win TOR vs SEA on July 3, 2026?

Based on 10,000 Pitch Sim v5.3 Monte Carlo simulations, TOR is favored with a 52.9% win probability. The simulation's mean projected score is SEA 3.1 - TOR 3.4.

How did TOR vs SEA on July 3, 2026 end?

Final score: SEA 0 - TOR 2. This page now shows our pre-game projection alongside the actual outcome for transparency — every Olympus Bets projection is preserved with its result.

How does Olympus Bets generate sports predictions?

Every projection is produced by a league-specific Monte Carlo simulation engine (10,000+ iterations per game), Platt-scaled and isotonic-calibrated against historical outcomes, then sized with the Kelly Criterion plus a 15% Bayesian probability shrinkage. The full methodology is documented at https://app.olympus-bets.com/methodology.

TOR vs SEA Prediction & Picks — July 3, 2026

TOR vs SEA prediction for July 3, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SEA 3.1 - TOR 3.4. TOR is favored with a 52.9% win probability. The run line is 1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.5 total runs.

SEA

3.1

Projected Score

VS O/U 7.5

TOR

3.4

Projected Score

Win Probability

47.1%

52.9%

SEATOR

+1.5

Run Line (SEA)

7.5

Total Line

10,000

Simulations

☑ Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 49.6% (2,758 games)

Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile

TOR

135

SEA

135

Projected

SEA 3.1 — TOR 3.4

Actual

SEA 0 — TOR 2

Starting Pitcher Matchup

Dylan Cease R

TOR

FF35%98 mph26% whiff

SL30%89 mph42% whiff

CH11%84 mph64% whiff

Luis Castillo R

SEA

FF45%95 mph26% whiff

SL26%85 mph27% whiff

SI16%95 mph8% whiff

Weather Impact

T-Mobile Park

69°F6 mph windRoof: retractable

HR: 1.007 Total: 1.003

neutral

Bullpen Comparison

TOR

3.92ERA

3.64FIP

9.10K/9

3.46BB/9

1.29WHIP

SEA

3.37ERA

3.72FIP

8.85K/9

3.64BB/9

1.33WHIP

Betting Edges

RUN_LINE HOME +1.5

-38.2% EV

-169

TOTAL OVER 7.5

-17.5% EV

+102

F5_ML AWAY

-10.5% EV

-147

RUN_LINE AWAY -1.5

-7.2% EV

+140

TOTAL UNDER 7.5

+7.1% EV

-123

ML AWAY

-3.9% EV

-123

First 5 Innings & NRFI

TOR F5

1.8 runs

42.8% win

SEA F5

1.7 runs

39.4% win

F5 Total

3.4

NRFI

61.9%

YRFI

38.1%

Avg 1st Inn Runs

0.77

HR Spotlight

Avg HRs

1.6

Over 0.5 HR

80%

Over 1.5 HR

48%

No HR

20%

Pitcher Strikeout Projections

Dylan Cease

0.0 K projected

TOR | K/9: 0.0

Luis Castillo

0.0 K projected

SEA | K/9: 0.0

Injury Report

TOR8 injured

Max Scherzer SP15-DAY-IL

George Springer DHPATERNITY

Yimi Garcia RP60-DAY-IL

Addison Barger RF10-DAY-IL

Jesus Sanchez RF10-DAY-IL

Lenyn Sosa 2B10-DAY-IL

+2 more

SEA8 injured

Victor Robles RFDAY-TO-DAY

Julio Rodriguez CFDAY-TO-DAY

Brendan Donovan 3B10-DAY-IL

Rob Refsnyder DH10-DAY-IL

Carlos Vargas RP60-DAY-IL

Will Wilson 3B60-DAY-IL

+2 more

Edge Analysis

Moneyline

TOR 52.9%

-38.2 pts

Run Line

+1.5

-38.2 pts

Total

7.5

+7.1 pts

How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →

TOR vs SEA Prediction