ARI vs SD prediction for September 25, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects SD 3.2 - ARI 3.5. ARI is favored with a 52.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 7.5. Model projects 6.8 total runs.
SD
3.2
Projected Score
VS
O/U 7.5
ARI
3.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
SDARI
-1.5
Run Line (SD)
7.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 54.6% (4,034 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
245
SD
135
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Brandon Pfaadt R
ARI
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF27%93 mph11% whiff
SI17%93 mph10% whiff
CH16%87 mph22% whiff
Casey Mize R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF35%93 mph17% whiff
SL28%87 mph23% whiff
FS24%88 mph29% whiff
Weather Impact
PETCO Park
76°F8 mph wind
HR: 0.993 Total: 0.994
6mph in
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.22ERA
3.50FIP
8.11K/9
2.92BB/9
1.14WHIP
SD
2.85ERA
3.49FIP
9.81K/9
3.80BB/9
1.21WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
1.9 runs
41.9% win
SD F5
1.8 runs
38.2% win
F5 Total
3.7
NRFI
59.0%
YRFI
41.0%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.82
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
ARI6 injured
Corbin Burnes SP15-DAY-IL
Tyler Locklear 1B60-DAY-IL
Ryan Thompson RP60-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Andrew Saalfrank RP60-DAY-IL
Cristian Mena RP60-DAY-IL
SD8 injured
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Gavin Sheets 1B10-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Laureano LF60-DAY-IL
Luis Rengifo LF60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.