ARI vs STL prediction for June 22, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 5.5 - ARI 3.7. STL is favored with a 62.3% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.5. Model projects 9.2 total runs.
STL
5.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.5
ARI
3.7
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLARI
-1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 61.6% (2,610 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ARI
246
STL
467
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Merrill Kelly R
ARI
FF26%92 mph12% whiff
CH26%88 mph28% whiff
FC15%91 mph11% whiff
Andre Pallante R
STL
SL30%88 mph31% whiff
FF30%95 mph12% whiff
SI19%95 mph12% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
74°F6 mph wind
HR: 1.045 Total: 1.024
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
ARI
3.28ERA
3.68FIP
8.28K/9
3.10BB/9
1.10WHIP
STL
4.30ERA
4.29FIP
8.27K/9
4.08BB/9
1.36WHIP
Betting Edges
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-50.7% EV
-179
F5_ML AWAY
-29.3% EV
+122
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+19.3% EV
+146
ML AWAY
-14.6% EV
+120
F5_ML HOME
+13.2% EV
-152
TOTAL UNDER 8.5
-6.4% EV
-106
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ARI F5
1.9 runs
24.8% win
STL F5
3.6 runs
62.7% win
F5 Total
5.4
NRFI
49.4%
YRFI
50.6%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.13
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
2.4
Over 0.5 HR
91%
Over 1.5 HR
69%
No HR
9%
Corbin Carroll ARI30.0%
ISO: 0.264 | Barrel: 13.1% | vs Andre Pallante | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Jordan Walker STL30.0%
ISO: 0.236 | Barrel: 14.7% | vs Merrill Kelly | Park: 0.98x
Alec Burleson STL30.0%
ISO: 0.278 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Merrill Kelly | Park: 0.98x Platoon: 1.12x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Merrill Kelly
0.0 K projected
ARI | K/9: 0.0
Andre Pallante
0.0 K projected
STL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ARI8 injured
Michael Soroka SP15-DAY-IL
Jordan Lawlar LF10-DAY-IL
A.J. Puk RP60-DAY-IL
Ryne Nelson SP15-DAY-IL
Juan Centeno CDEVELOPMENTAL LIST
James McCann C10-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL7 injured
Sem Robberse SPDAY-TO-DAY
Ryan Fernandez RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Urias 3B60-DAY-IL
Packy Naughton RPDAY-TO-DAY
Victor Santos RPDAY-TO-DAY
Ixan Henderson SPDAY-TO-DAY
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
STRONG BET +1YELLOW ZONE53.9% WR (n=116)
STL home projects 62.3% win prob (61.2% model) vs market 58.8% — only 4.0% edge but STL has legitimate pitcher advantage (Pallante 4.06 ERA, 8.0 K-rate) > Kelly (0 ERA recorded, 5.3 K-rate). Home field + weak away starter + F5 dominance (13.2% F5 edge at 68.2% prob) = actionable despite modest full-game edge.
Key Factors
- Pitcher quality: Pallante 4.06 ERA, 8.0 K-rate (B- grade) > Kelly 0 ERA recorded, 5.3 K-rate (C grade) — STL pitcher advantage
- F5 dominance: 13.2% edge (68.2% prob STL first 5) — early offensive mismatch
- Home field: Busch Stadium neutral conditions but STL home advantage real (57.3% zone WR combo)
- ARI missing Jordan Lawlar (LF, 10-day IL) — lineup weakness, though Corbin Carroll elite (30% HR)
- Model 61.2% vs market 58.8% = 2.4% edge, but F5 strongly supports (13.2% edge)
Risk Factors
- 4.0% ML edge modest; zone YELLOW with 53.9% WR on home favorites
- Kelly's 0 ERA suspicious (no recent data); actual performance unknown
- RUN LINE edge 19.3% on HOME -1.5 (48.5% prob) — strong run-line play but less stable than ML
PITCHER MISMATCHGREEN ZONE COMBODIRECTION CONFIRMEDINJURY IMPACT
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
STL 62.3%
+19.3 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+19.3 pts
Total
8.5
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How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →