FINAL: CHC 7 — ATL 3. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected CHC 6.5 - ATL 5.5 (CHC at 64.2% win probability). The run line is -1.5 and the total is 9.5. Model projects 11.9 total runs.
CHC
6.5
Projected Score
VS
O/U 9.5
ATL
5.5
Projected Score
Win Probability
CHCATL
-1.5
Run Line (CHC)
9.5
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
ATL L5CHC W5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 75.1% (3,916 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
ATL
467
CHC
568
Projected
CHC 6.5 — ATL 5.5
Actual
CHC 7 — ATL 3
Pick Results
CHC MLmlWIN+0.42u
ATL @ CHC YRFInrfiLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Reynaldo López R
ATL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF54%94 mph14% whiff
SL31%84 mph33% whiff
CU11%74 mph19% whiff
David Peterson L
CHC
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI30%92 mph14% whiff
FF24%92 mph18% whiff
SL22%86 mph27% whiff
Weather Impact
Wrigley Field
70°F12 mph wind
HR: 1.038 Total: 1.020
neutral
Bullpen Comparison
ATL
3.13ERA
3.42FIP
9.61K/9
3.13BB/9
1.14WHIP
CHC
4.27ERA
4.73FIP
9.23K/9
4.09BB/9
1.33WHIP
Betting Edges
TOTAL OVER 9.5
+14.1% EV
-103
ML AWAY
-13.9% EV
+118
NRFI NRFI
-13.6% EV
+102
F5_ML AWAY
-12.2% EV
+106
RUN_LINE AWAY +1.5
-9.8% EV
-172
RUN_LINE HOME -1.5
+8.6% EV
+153
First 5 Innings & NRFI
ATL F5
3.1 runs
36.1% win
CHC F5
3.9 runs
52.4% win
F5 Total
7.0
NRFI
40.9%
YRFI
59.1%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.47
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.6
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
87%
No HR
3%
Pete Crow-Armstrong CHC30.0%
ISO: 0.305 | Barrel: 16.4% | vs Reynaldo López | Park: 1.03x Platoon: 1.12x
Matt Olson ATL25.5%
ISO: 0.245 | Barrel: 14.8% | vs David Peterson | Park: 1.03x
Seiya Suzuki CHC24.4%
ISO: 0.195 | Barrel: 10.4% | vs Reynaldo López | Park: 1.03x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Reynaldo López
0.0 K projected
ATL | K/9: 0.0
David Peterson
0.0 K projected
CHC | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
ATL8 injured
Robert Suarez RP60-DAY-IL
Joe Jimenez RP60-DAY-IL
Lane Thomas LF10-DAY-IL
Bryce Elder SP15-DAY-IL
Spencer Strider SP60-DAY-IL
Spencer Schwellenbach SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
CHC8 injured
Trent Thornton RP15-DAY-IL
Dansby Swanson SS10-DAY-IL
Gavin Hollowell RP15-DAY-IL
Ben Brown RP60-DAY-IL
Justin Steele SP60-DAY-IL
Phil Maton RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
Though López (4.46 ERA) is technically the better pitcher than Peterson (5.70 ERA), Wrigley's wind blowing out (+1.02 HR multiplier) and CHC's power-heavy lineup drive a legitimate 2.44-run total gap (11.94 model vs 9.5 market) that's the real actionable edge here, not the ML.
Key Factors
- PITCHER ATTRIBUTION CHECK: López 4.46 ERA is LOWER than Peterson 5.70 ERA -- ATL has the pitcher advantage, yet model favors CHC home. Edge driven by park/weather, not SP.
- Wrigley wind 2.6 mph OUT + park factor 1.03 = +1.02 HR multiplier, favors CHC sluggers (Crow-Armstrong 30.0% HR prob)
- Total edge massive: 14.1%, 2.44-run gap between model (11.94) and market (9.5) -- true actionable signal
- historical support YELLOW at a supportive track record for home favorite 5-10% edge gives modest ML confirmation
Risk Factors
- Model favors home despite AWAY having the pitcher advantage -- must rely on park/weather/lineup drivers, which adds uncertainty
- Totals market structurally disabled; this is a flagged high-edge exception
- HR-dependent outcomes (Crow-Armstrong, Suzuki) add game-to-game variance
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
CHC 64.2%
+8.6 pts
Run Line
-1.5
+8.6 pts
Total
9.5
+14.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.