FINAL: COL 7 — SD 8. Our Monte Carlo simulation projected COL 6.0 - SD 6.4 (SD at 50.5% win probability). The run line is 1.5 and the total is 11.0. Model projects 12.4 total runs.
COL
6.0
Projected Score
VS
O/U 11.0
SD
6.4
Projected Score
Win Probability
COLSD
+1.5
Run Line (COL)
11.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
SD W5COL L5
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 51.1% (3,916 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SD
468
COL
468
Projected
COL 6.0 — SD 6.4
Actual
COL 7 — SD 8
Pick Results
COL MLmlLOSS-0.50u
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Casey Mize R
SD
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF34%93 mph18% whiff
SL28%88 mph24% whiff
FS24%88 mph30% whiff
Tomoyuki Sugano R
COL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FS22%87 mph30% whiff
FF21%92 mph14% whiff
SI18%92 mph4% whiff
Weather Impact
Coors Field
82°F10 mph wind
HR: 1.117 Total: 1.058
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SD
2.92ERA
3.53FIP
9.86K/9
3.70BB/9
1.20WHIP
COL
4.94ERA
4.37FIP
7.63K/9
4.29BB/9
1.52WHIP
Betting Edges
ML HOME
+23.1% EV
+185
RUN_LINE HOME +1.5
+15.3% EV
+119
NRFI NRFI
-14.4% EV
+104
F5_ML AWAY
-13.6% EV
-185
TOTAL UNDER 11.0
-13.5% EV
+101
F5 UNDER 6.5
-9.8% EV
-135
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SD F5
3.6 runs
46.6% win
COL F5
3.4 runs
41.8% win
F5 Total
7.0
NRFI
39.9%
YRFI
60.2%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
1.49
HR Spotlight
Avg HRs
3.7
Over 0.5 HR
97%
Over 1.5 HR
88%
No HR
3%
Hunter Goodman COL30.0%
ISO: 0.289 | Barrel: 16.1% | vs Casey Mize | Park: 1.18x
Jackson Merrill SD29.8%
ISO: 0.209 | Barrel: 9.6% | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | Park: 1.18x Platoon: 1.12x
Luis Campusano SD29.0%
ISO: 0.197 | Barrel: 8.7% | vs Tomoyuki Sugano | Park: 1.18x
Pitcher Strikeout Projections
Casey Mize
0.0 K projected
SD | K/9: 0.0
Tomoyuki Sugano
0.0 K projected
COL | K/9: 0.0
Injury Report
SD8 injured
Gavin Sheets 1B10-DAY-IL
Jeremiah Estrada RP15-DAY-IL
Ramon Laureano LF60-DAY-IL
Jason Adam RP60-DAY-IL
Miguel Andujar DH10-DAY-IL
Joe Musgrove SP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
COL8 injured
Sean Sullivan SP15-DAY-IL
Jose Quintana SP60-DAY-IL
Kyle Freeland SP15-DAY-IL
Willi Castro 2B10-DAY-IL
Chase Dollander SP60-DAY-IL
Welinton Herrera RP60-DAY-IL
+2 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
LEAN +1
COL's home ML edge is reported at an alarming 23.1%, well above the danger historical support for model overconfidence, but Coors Field's legitimate 1.18 park factor (thin air, 82F) plus standard home-field premium justify a real edge -- capped conservatively at ~12-13% rather than trusting the raw model output.
Key Factors
- HIGH-EDGE WARNING: Raw model edge is 23.1%, well above the 15% threshold historically associated with worst model performance -- must discount
- PITCHER ATTRIBUTION CHECK: Mize 4.00 ERA (away) is LOWER than Sugano 5.72 ERA (home) -- SD has pitcher advantage, contradicting model's COL home lean
- Coors Field park factor 1.18 (thin air, density altitude 3113) is real and substantial -- justifies some home lean despite pitcher disadvantage
- Calibration max_edge_cap for ML is 15.0 -- model's 23.1% raw edge should be capped, translating to a more conservative true edge estimate
Risk Factors
- Model's edge (23.1%) is a textbook overconfidence red flag per our own known-weakness calibration
- SD's pitcher advantage (Mize 4.00 vs Sugano 5.72 ERA, 1.72 gap) is being overridden by park factor alone -- risky bet structure
- +185 market price already reflects some park adjustment; further mispricing may not be as large as raw model suggests
Edge Analysis
Moneyline
SD 50.5%
+15.3 pts
Run Line
+1.5
+15.3 pts
Total
11.0
+7.1 pts
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.