SF vs STL prediction for September 14, 2026: Our Monte Carlo simulation ran 10,000 game iterations and projects STL 4.3 - SF 4.0. STL is favored with a 56.5% win probability. The run line is -1.5 and the total is 8.0. Model projects 8.3 total runs.
STL
4.3
Projected Score
VS
O/U 8.0
SF
4.0
Projected Score
Win Probability
STLSF
-1.5
Run Line (STL)
8.0
Total Line
10,000
Simulations
Calibrated accuracy at this confidence: 57.4% (3,916 games)
Projected Runs Range 10th – 90th percentile
SF
246
STL
246
Projected
STL 4.3 — SF 4.0
Actual
STL 2 — SF 1
Starting Pitcher Matchup
Landen Roupp R
SF
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
SI34%93 mph7% whiff
CU26%77 mph33% whiff
CH21%87 mph25% whiff
Quinn Mathews L
STL
usagewhiffbar labels show usage · mph
FF40%94 mph18% whiff
SL24%85 mph25% whiff
CH17%83 mph40% whiff
Weather Impact
Busch Stadium
86°F11 mph wind
HR: 1.033 Total: 1.016
thin air
Bullpen Comparison
SF
4.57ERA
4.61FIP
7.00K/9
4.37BB/9
1.48WHIP
STL
4.51ERA
4.26FIP
8.27K/9
4.17BB/9
1.35WHIP
Betting Edges
First 5 Innings & NRFI
SF F5
2.2 runs
39.6% win
STL F5
2.4 runs
43.6% win
F5 Total
4.6
NRFI
56.3%
YRFI
43.7%
Avg 1st Inn Runs
0.94
HR Spotlight
Injury Report
SF8 injured
Rafael Devers 1B60-DAY-IL
Victor Bericoto LF10-DAY-IL
Carson Whisenhunt SP60-DAY-IL
Marcelo Mayer 2B10-DAY-IL
JT Brubaker RP15-DAY-IL
Jesus Rodriguez C60-DAY-IL
+2 more
STL7 injured
Blaze Jordan 3B10-DAY-IL
JJ Wetherholt 2B10-DAY-IL
Jose Fermin LFDAY-TO-DAY
Peter Strzelecki RP15-DAY-IL
Hunter Dobbins SP15-DAY-IL
Everson Pereira RF10-DAY-IL
+1 more
AI Intelligence Analysis
Edge Analysis
How this prediction was generated: This page shows output from the Olympus Bets MLB Baseball Monte Carlo engine. Each game is simulated 10,000 times using real-time team data, injury reports, and current odds. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Probabilities are calibrated using Bayesian methods and sized via the Kelly Criterion. Full methodology →
Permanent record: this game page is retired 90 days after the event. The full graded MLB 2026 record — every pick, win rate, units and ROI — lives on the MLB 2026 season report card.